Republicans face political "headwinds" in the 2026 midterm elections, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Wednesday.
Thune's warning came a day after Republicans avoided what could have been a morale-shaking upset in a special election in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, a seat the GOP held, but with a margin that set off chatter about turnout, messaging, and the economy.
Thune told reporters it's "not uncommon" for the party in power to run into turbulence before midterms, especially in off-year or special elections where the opposition is typically more energized, The Hill reported.
"The opposition party tends to be more motivated, their voters are motivated," he said, noting that turnout models in specials can look much different than in even-numbered years.
In Tuesday's contest, Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by about 9 points to replace retiring Rep. Mark Green.
But Thune acknowledged the obvious comparison point: President Donald Trump carried the district by about 22 points in 2024.
While Thune called 9 points "a fairly handy win," he cautioned against reading too much into a single race.
Still, he emphasized Republicans must "sharpen our message" and give voters "a reason to vote for us" in 2026.
Trump and GOP leaders treated the race seriously, with the president publicly celebrating Van Epps' victory and framing the outcome as another rejection of Democrats' "radical" agenda after heavy spending aimed at flipping the seat.
Trump hailed Van Epps on Truth Social, saying Democrats "threw everything at him."
The win also nudged the House math further in Republicans' direction, reinforcing why Democrats targeted the contest so aggressively.
Newsmax chief political columnist John Gizzi wrote that the Tennessee result fits a familiar historical pattern: the president's party often struggles in early special elections because the opposition can concentrate money and manpower on a single contest.
Gizzi also wrote that with Trump not on the ballot, some lower-propensity GOP voters stayed home, making late-cycle messaging and turnout operations decisive in holding the seat.
Democrats are using the closer-than-usual margin as ammunition to claim momentum, citing recent off-year wins and stronger-than-expected performances in competitive contests.
A Politico analysis said the relatively narrow margin "gave Democrats cause to celebrate" even in defeat, portraying the 9-point outcome as a warning sign for Republicans.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats and can still keep the majority even if they lose up to three.
Newsmax Wires contributed to this report.
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Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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