With less than a year before voters determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, both Democrats and Republicans are maneuvering aggressively. Democrats are trying to build on a handful of off-year victories, while Republicans aim to protect their majority and capitalize on Democrat-driven divisions in key states.
Democrats face an uphill climb: they must flip four seats. Yet the party is projecting confidence, boosted by high-profile recruits and a belief that the political climate may shift in their favor. Republicans, meanwhile, see opportunity in messy Democratic primaries and candidates carrying significant baggage.
Below is a Thanksgiving weekend look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026.
North Carolina
Republicans face an emerging challenge in North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis' seat could become unexpectedly competitive. Former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper — undefeated in six statewide races — gives Democrats their strongest foothold on the 2026 map.
Cooper is likely to face Michael Whatley, the former RNC and North Carolina GOP chair and a close ally of President Donald Trump. GOP insiders say Whatley benefits from avoiding a costly primary, but some strategists worry he has yet to develop a distinctive personal brand.
"He's up against someone with a polished statewide presence," one GOP operative told The Hill, adding that Whatley's past as an energy lobbyist may not help him with swing voters.
Tillis said Whatley must counter Democrats' messaging on affordability and healthcare but downplayed early polling deficits.
"Being behind doesn't matter. But you can't be behind by too much."
At this early stage, both parties acknowledge Cooper begins the race with an advantage.
Georgia
Georgia remains the marquee battleground as Republicans line up to challenge Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff. The GOP primary has already turned ugly.
A pro-Derek Dooley outside group aligned with Gov. Brian Kemp ran ads attacking Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, linking them to the 43-day government shutdown — and even to Ossoff.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee swiftly distanced itself from the spot, which conflicts with the party's message blaming Democrats for the shutdown.
Despite the infighting, GOP leaders still believe Georgia is their best pickup opportunity.
Ossoff, for his part, voted against the government-reopening deal, appearing to bet that staying aligned with progressive activists will help him survive a tough cycle.
One GOP strategist summarized the stakes clearly: "If the environment is bad for Republicans, Ossoff can win. If the environment is even neutral, it's going to be very close."
Maine
Democrats hoping to unseat Sen. Susan Collins now face an unpredictable primary. Gov. Janet Mills, long expected to be the nominee, jumped into the race in October after heavy recruitment from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. But she was immediately challenged by Graham Platner, a veteran and oyster farmer backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
Platner energized progressive voters but has already faced major controversies, including reports of a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol and questionable Reddit posts. Strategists say he could either surge or implode.
Democrats in Washington still prefer Mills, though some privately worry about running an almost-octogenarian in a volatile cycle. Collins' approval has slipped since her last race, but operatives admit the longtime senator remains a formidable opponent.
Michigan
Michigan continues to frustrate Republicans. While Trump won the state twice, GOP Senate candidates have repeatedly fallen short for more than three decades.
Republicans are again turning to former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost by fewer than 20,000 votes to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024. This time Democrats are locked in a contentious primary between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed.
Rogers is expected to avoid a primary, but GOP strategists remain cautious. Some worry the absence of Trump on the ballot removes a crucial tailwind for Rogers, whom they describe as a solid but limited candidate.
Democrats acknowledge none of their contenders has broken out yet, with name recognition still the deciding factor.
New Hampshire
The biggest shake-up on the map came in New Hampshire, where former Sen. John Sununu jumped into the race to replace retiring Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Sununu — who lost to Shaheen in 2008 — was heavily recruited by GOP leaders dissatisfied with former Sen. Scott Brown. More than half of Senate Republicans have already lined up behind him, signaling a strong desire to unite early.
Sununu would face Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas, a well-known figure with deep New Hampshire ties. And Trump lost New Hampshire last cycle, making the state more challenging for Republicans than others on the map.
Some GOP operatives say Sununu lacks the retail political chops of his brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, but still represents the party's best chance in a year where everything must break right.
Gov. Kelly Ayotte's presence atop the GOP ticket could help energize Republicans — but only if national conditions improve.
"If the environment is bad, you're not flipping New Hampshire," one strategist told The Hill.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.