Serbia’s government is warning of a deepening energy and economic crisis if Washington does not approve a 90-day waiver of U.S. sanctions that would allow the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to assume temporary operational control of the country’s sole oil refinery, NIS, while it completes the purchase of Russia’s majority stake.
Sanctions imposed this fall halted NIS’s access to U.S. dollars and cut off crude supplies routed through neighboring Croatia, forcing the 4.8-million-ton facility into near-idle status.
Belgrade officials say that without a 90-day window to restart operations under a non-Russian owner, Serbia could face cascading consequences — from fuel shortages and industrial slowdowns to political instability in a region long sensitive to energy disruptions.
Other neighboring countries — including Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania — have been granted waivers to deal with their dependency on Russian energy.
The situation carries special political weight because President Aleksandar Vučić’s government has been considered one of the Trump administration’s strongest allies in the region.
Vucic has supported Trump administration policy toward Ukraine, shipping significant armaments to Kyiv. And Belgrade has been the lone European country to sell arms to Israel.
These and other actions have infuriated Moscow, with their intelligence services backing opposition movements in Serbia.
Russia’s FSB even issued a rare statement condemning Belgrade, saying they accused them of profiting “from the blood of their fraternal Slavic people” and had “forced them to completely forget who their true friends and who their enemies are.”
If the U.S. waiver is not granted, the most immediate danger is a prolonged shutdown of Serbia’s only domestic refinery.
NIS is responsible for roughly 80% of the country’s refined oil products, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
“The refinery must continue working and a new flow of crude oil must be provided as soon as possible,” Serbian Energy Minister Dubravka Handanovic told The Wall Street Journal.
With imports from Hungary already stretched and supply chains under strain, Serbia risks entering winter with severely restricted fuel availability.
Officials warn that such a scenario could disrupt transport, food distribution, and heating supplies.
Industrial plants dependent on steady diesel deliveries — including key exporters in Serbia’s automotive and metals sectors — would face production cuts within weeks.
Serbia’s national electricity system, which uses fuel oil reserves as part of winter balancing operations, also stands to be affected if refinery stocks cannot be replenished.
A senior energy official described the situation bluntly: “The refinery must continue working. Without new crude flows and the transition to a new owner, we cannot guarantee uninterrupted supply for basic economic activity.”
Beyond energy security, prolonged sanctions risk dealing a heavy blow to Serbia’s already fragile economy.
NIS contributes as much as 5% of Serbia’s GDP and more than 10% of government revenues through taxes, dividends, and energy fees. With the company’s operations stalled, those revenue streams have slowed to a trickle.
At the geopolitical level, failure to secure the waiver would stall a transition that U.S. officials and many in Belgrade view as essential: removing Russia’s 56% controlling stake in NIS.
For over a decade, the company has been both a commercial pillar and a conduit for Moscow’s political and intelligence activities in the Balkans. Western diplomats have long maintained that NIS served as a major channel for funding pro-Russian media, NGOs, and covert operations in the region.
Allowing sanctions to halt the refinery without enabling a new non-Russian owner to step in could paradoxically create a power vacuum — one that Moscow might exploit by portraying Serbia as a victim of Western pressure rather than a partner in Europe’s stability. That narrative could resonate with Serbian voters who retain deep cultural and political sympathies for Russia.
The prospective sale to ADNOC represents more than a commercial transaction — it signals Serbia’s potential strategic pivot toward the Gulf, where Belgrade has already deepened economic ties through real estate and defense cooperation.
Emirati ownership of NIS would break Russia’s grip on Serbia’s energy backbone and align the country more closely with Western-aligned global markets.
But without a 90-day sanctions pause to allow ADNOC to gain temporary operational authority, the sale could collapse. That outcome would leave Serbia scrambling for alternative buyers under crisis conditions, or potentially force the government into a costly emergency nationalization — both options carrying heavy financial and political risks.
Serbia now stands at a crossroads.
A U.S. decision to approve the waiver would stabilize the country’s energy supply, accelerate the exit of Russian influence from its most strategic sector, and reward Belgrade’s increasingly pro-Western posture.
A rejection, however, threatens to trigger an energy shock, fiscal losses, and political turbulence with a key ally in a critical region.
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