Siena Poll: Hochul Up 19 Points Over Stefanik in N.Y. Governor's Race

A new Siena College poll shows New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holding a commanding lead over her potential Republican challengers as the state looks ahead to the 2026 gubernatorial race.

According to the survey, Hochul leads Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., by 19 points in a hypothetical general election matchup, 49% to 30%. The Democrat governor performs even better against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, topping him 50% to 25%.

The poll suggests Hochul has strengthened her standing with voters, with 52% approving of her job performance and 43% viewing her favorably, compared to 41% unfavorable. That marks an improvement from earlier surveys.

By contrast, Stefanik's favorability rating dropped to 22% favorable and 33% unfavorable, while more than 40% of voters said they did not know enough about her to form an opinion.

In potential primary contests, Hochul dominates Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado by a wide margin among Democrats, while Stefanik leads Blakeman on the Republican side. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that name recognition remains a major challenge for Hochul's rivals.

"For Blakeman and Delgado, the need to become more known to voters becomes a pressing issue six months before the primaries, with each of them unfamiliar to more than two-thirds of all voters, and both of them unfamiliar to a majority of voters in their respective parties," Greenberg said.

Despite ongoing concerns about affordability, the poll found a modest rise in optimism about the state's direction. Forty-four percent of respondents said New York is on the right track, though 45% said the state is falling behind others.

Voters were skeptical that either Hochul or Stefanik would significantly reduce the cost of living, with a plurality saying neither candidate would make New York more affordable.

The survey also showed strong support for progressive tax policies. Sixty-five percent of respondents backed a proposal to fund free universal childcare — from infancy through pre-kindergarten — by raising taxes on individuals earning more than $1 million annually.

The poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 and surveyed 801 registered New York voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

• N.Y. Gov. Poll: Stefanik, Hochul Locked in Tight Race
• Bruce Blakeman to Newsmax: I'm Running Against Hochul, Not Stefanik