The Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP super PAC, estimates that it will need to spend as much as $70 million to reelect Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in 2026 and fend off a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
In a presentation obtained by Punchbowl News, the SLF solicits donations to Cornyn and warns that the 2026 Senate election in Texas could become a costly loss for Republicans if the incumbent loses in the primary.
The SLF projects that it will have to spend between $25 million and $70 million to propel Cornyn, who was first elected to his post in 2002, over the finish line in the Republican primary against Paxton, who the SLF projects could require between $200 million and $250 million to win the general election.
The super PAC also found that Cornyn trails behind Paxton in favorability, with the attorney general holding a 17-point advantage on average across about a dozen polls, and that most Republican primary voters, 58%, think the GOP senator is not a conservative. Forty percent view him as a "moderate" and 19% think he is "somewhat" or "very" liberal. Only 12% consider Cornyn "very conservative," while 47% said Paxton is "very conservative."
One slide in the presentation obtained by Punchbowl states that the state's filing deadline of December, ahead of the primary next March, is "not great news" for the GOP because "this is an expensive state with an early timeline. Resources will need to be committed starting this August."
An SLF spokesperson said in a statement that the super PAC "will continue to educate voters on his [Cornyn's] conservative record," and criticized "Ken Paxton's toxic record," saying it "only takes resources away from growing the Senate majority."
An adviser to Cornyn said in a statement: "John Cornyn hasn't been on the ballot in five years. Educating voters about his actual record is job #1. And his 99.2% record voting with Trump while President. All public polling shows his image with Republican voters is solid and it will continue to grow as voters learn about his actual record."
Theodore Bunker ✉
Theodore Bunker, a Newsmax writer, has more than a decade covering news, media, and politics.
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