The number of migrants crossing the U.S. southern border has sharply declined in the nearly two months since Title 42 was lifted.
Officials say they don't expect the lull to last.
According to Department of Homeland Security data, the average number of illegal daily crossings since May 12 has been approximately 3,360; that number was about 7,100 in March 2022.
The expiration of Title 42 – the public health policy used to quickly expel migrants – was expected to bring with it a surge of illegal immigrants seeking to enter the U.S. The spike in illegal crossings came shortly before the rule expired and the Biden administration introduced policies aimed at reducing the flow.
Officials told The New York Times that they don't expect the drop in southern border crossings to last. They say migrants have been waiting to see what happens now that Title 42 has ended and policies that restrict asylum access and create new legal pathways have been unveiled.
With the new policies already facing legal hurdles, many migrants are likely waiting to see if they withstand the court challenges.
Falko Ernst, a senior Mexico analyst for the International Crisis Group, told the Times that the illegal immigrants are also paying attention to how others are faring at the U.S.-Mexico border and whether they are experiencing new difficulties in entering the United States.
"You might have people standing by because they're hearing stories and they're frightened," Ernst said of the new policies.
Illegal crossings also may be down, officials say, because migrants are taking advantage of new programs to seek asylum and new legal pathways to enter the U.S.
Migrants in central and northern Mexico can apply for an appointment at an official border port of entry using a government smartphone app. Recent government data shows that, despite technical glitches, nearly 30,000 appointments were made using the app in May.
Under a special humanitarian parole, migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela can apply to live and work in the U.S. for two years, and the Biden administration announced in April that migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras would be eligible for a family reunification program.
Mexico has also made it more difficult for migrants to reach the U.S. border by limiting their ability to travel throughout the country and by flying migrants recently deported by the U.S. to southern parts of the country.
Some officials say they expect border crossings to increase because the factors driving migration have not changed.
Extreme poverty, violence, and political instability still plague the countries people are fleeing, including Venezuela, Nicaragua, Haiti, and Cuba.
"I am confident there are a lot of people moving into the hemisphere, mostly headed this way," Benjamine Huffman, a senior Customs and Border Protection official, said at a congressional hearing on June 6. "We see the news reports. We look at shelters that have people."
According to an intelligence estimate the Biden administration gave in a recent court filing, there were approximately 104,000 migrants in northern Mexico as of June 14.
Ernst said that migrants who are waiting somewhere along their route to the U.S. might risk crossing the southern border illegally because they find the dangers of staying put, such as forced labor and sex trafficking, to be too great.
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