With just days remaining before Election Day, the latest TIPP National Tracking Poll shows presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 48%, with suburban and independent voters emerging as critical to determining the outcome.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, highlights stark demographic divisions across age, race, and region.
Trump currently holds a slight advantage among independents, leading Harris by 46% to 44%. Harris leads by a razor-thin margin in suburban areas, securing 48% support to Trump’s 47%, with three percent of suburban voters still undecided. Meanwhile, both candidates dominate among their party bases, capturing 94% of Republican and Democratic voters, respectively.
Regionally, the poll reflects clear battleground divisions: Trump is favored in the Midwest (51% to 47%) and the South (50% to 46%), while Harris leads in the West (52% to 43%) and holds a slim advantage in the Northeast. The poll also shows Trump’s substantial lead among white voters (56% to 41%) and Harris’s strong support among Black (76% to 19%) and Hispanic voters (54% to 44%).
Gender, age, and education further underscore the divide, with men leaning toward Trump (50% to 45%) and women supporting Harris (51% to 46%). Younger voters favor Harris, while Trump has a commanding lead among voters aged 45-64. Among high school graduates, Trump holds a 53% to 44% lead, though Harris leads by 52% to 44% among those with a college degree.
Election modeling, incorporating polling averages and betting markets, gives Trump a slight edge. TIPP simulations show a 59.8% chance of victory for Trump versus 39.0% for Harris, with a 1.2% chance of a tie.
As Election Day approaches, these margins reflect a high-stakes race where turnout, particularly in suburban and independent voter groups, could ultimately decide the next president.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.