Former President Donald Trump is seeing an uptick in key battleground state polls, with Vice President Kamala Harris' early leads fading as the presidential race narrows in its final weeks, The Hill reported.
As the 2024 presidential election nears its final stretch, polls in crucial swing states show a shift toward former President Trump. Polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) indicate a tightening race, with both Trump and Vice President Harris having an equal chance of victory. Harris' initial post-debate boost has dissipated, leaving both campaigns in a dead heat.
Trump's polling surge has raised concerns among Democrats, especially given his history of outperforming expectations. However, Harris' team remains hopeful that issues like abortion will energize her base.
Arizona
The Hill/DDHQ average shows that Trump currently leads in Arizona by 1.7 points. Recent polls have solidified his lead, including a New York Times/Siena College poll showing him ahead by 6 points. This marks a significant shift from 2020 when President Biden narrowly won the state. Meanwhile, Arizona's Senate race, featuring Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, is drawing attention, though Harris faces an uphill battle here.
Georgia
Trump holds a 1.9-point lead in Georgia, his largest lead among battleground states. This marks a reversal from earlier polling, which had Harris ahead. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Trump up by 6 points. Early voting began this week with record turnout, and Harris is set to campaign alongside former President Obama to boost Black voter turnout.
Michigan
In Michigan, Trump holds a narrow 0.7-point lead in The Hill/DDHQ average, while other polling sources show Harris with a slight edge. Concerns over the Biden-Harris administration's stance on Israel may affect Arab American voters in the state, while labor support remains a question mark. Both candidates are effectively tied in recent polls, keeping Michigan highly competitive.
Nevada
Nevada is also closely contested, with Harris leading by just 0.2 points in the Hill/DDHQ average. The state's six electoral votes are crucial, and service industry workers play a key role. Although polling has been sparse in recent weeks, a Trafalgar poll shows Harris up by only 1 point, making Nevada a battleground to watch.
North Carolina
Trump leads by 1 point in North Carolina. Early voting began Thursday, with a record-breaking 353,000 ballots cast on the first day. Harris leads by 3 points in one Quinnipiac poll, but other surveys show Trump with a slight edge. Trump's visit to flood-hit Asheville may have affected voters' views in the state.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is critical. Harris holds a slim lead of 0.3 points in the Hill/DDHQ average. Democrats argue that GOP-leaning polls are skewing the numbers, but a New York Times/Siena poll gives Harris a 4-point advantage among likely voters. Both campaigns are investing heavily in the state, with nearly $300 million spent on political ads.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Trump holds a slight 0.5-point lead in the Hill/DDHQ average, with Harris' former 5-point lead eroding. Recent polls favor Trump, making Wisconsin a key battleground.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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