The Biden administration has issued a warning to Iraq: prevent Iranian forces from launching attacks on Israel from Iraqi soil or risk Israeli retaliation within its borders.
This comes as Israeli and U.S. intelligence reportedly signal that Iran is preparing a significant assault on Israel from Iraqi soil in response to Israel's recent strike within Iran, U.S. officials told Axios.
According to sources, the Israeli strike on Oct. 25 has led Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to mobilize drones and ballistic missiles to allied Shia militias in Iraq, preparing for a joint attack. The Biden administration, keen to de-escalate rising tensions in the region, has repeatedly warned Iran, both publicly and privately, against initiating attacks. However, U.S. officials have expressed concerns that Iran remains undeterred.
Considering these developments, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have both spoken with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. They conveyed the urgent need for Iraq to prevent its soil from becoming a launch point for strikes against Israel.
"If you don't, we won't be able to stop Israel from striking Iraq," an unnamed U.S. official reportedly cautioned, underscoring the serious implications of potential inaction.
The discussions between U.S. officials and the Iraqi leadership have also included demands to curb Shia militia attacks on U.S. forces stationed in Iraq and Syria, which have been increasing in recent weeks. Blinken emphasized the importance of Iraq fulfilling its commitments to safeguard American personnel and take action against groups involved in assaults on U.S. and allied targets.
"The Secretary emphasized it is important that Iraq not be drawn into regional conflict," stated Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the State Department, adding that Blinken urged Iraq to exert control over armed groups responsible for these unauthorized attacks.
Despite U.S. warnings and calls for action, Iraq faces internal obstacles in controlling the pro-Iran militias. According to Iraqi government insiders and recent media statements, Al-Sudani has voiced his concerns about Iraq being dragged into the Israel-Iran conflict. However, Iraq's influence over certain Shia factions has reportedly been limited. In an interview published by Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper with connections to Hezbollah, a senior official from an Iraqi militia stated that al-Sudani has struggled to persuade these militias to halt their assaults on Israel and U.S. interests.
"There are factions that still say they will attack Israeli and U.S. interests," the militia official noted, emphasizing the challenges al-Sudani faces in trying to keep Iraq neutral.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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