Gordon Chang to Newsmax: US-China Deal 'Basically a 1-Year Truce'

President Donald Trump is expected to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to avert a new 100% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods, which is "basically a one-year truce," China analyst Gordon Chang told Newsmax on Monday.

"It ends just before the U.S. midterms, by the way, which should be interesting."

"But what's going to happen here is both sides are going to try to reduce their vulnerabilities to the other," Chang said during an appearance on "American Agenda."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC on Sunday that China was "ready to make a deal after two days of negotiations."

He said the agreement would remove the threat of the imposition of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting on Nov. 1 and include "a final deal" on the sale of TikTok in the U.S.

Chang said the temporary nature of the deal gives the U.S. and China a chance to reconfigure supply chains and strengthen their economic positions. However, he emphasized that America is better positioned to come out ahead because of Trump's forward-looking policies.

"I think we'll do better because President Trump's got some really important plans in place, including these deals on minerals and rare earths with Australia and with Malaysia and Thailand," he said.

According to Chang, those agreements are critical to reducing U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing, particularly in sectors vital to national security and high-tech production.

Rare earths and other critical minerals are key components in defense systems, semiconductors, and clean-energy technology.

"On the other hand, China is going to double down on programs and policies that make China more vulnerable, more dependent on the U.S.," he added.

Chang warned that such agreements have a poor track record.

"But the one thing that we've got to be concerned about is that we are, in fact, trading a substantial concrete benefit, which is not imposing the 100% tariffs in exchange for vague promises from China," he said. "We've done this many times in the past, and the Chinese always dishonor their agreements to us."

Trump's proposed tariff threat is part of a broader strategy aimed at pressuring Beijing to comply with trade rules and reduce its trade surplus with the U.S.

The proposed 100% duties would affect a wide range of imports, from electronics and machinery to pharmaceuticals and rare-earth products, if China fails to meet certain benchmarks.

The "one-year truce" may provide short-term stability, Chang said, but history suggests the underlying competition will resume quickly.

"Both sides are just buying time," he said. "But by next year, when this truce ends, we're likely to see the next phase of U.S.-China economic confrontation."

Negotiators from the world's top two economies hashed out a framework on Sunday for a deal to pause steeper American tariffs and Chinese rare-earth export controls, U.S. officials said.

The news sent Asian stocks soaring to record peaks.

Trump, who is scheduled to visit with Xi on Thursday in South Korea during his Asia tour, said the U.S. and China are set to "come away with" a trade deal.

"I've got a lot of respect for President Xi, and I think we're going to come away with a deal," Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday en route to Japan from Malaysia.

"We have China coming, and it's going to be very interesting."

Trump added that he might sign a final deal on TikTok on Thursday.

Newsmax Wires contributed to this report.

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