There is no "exact science" that can predict if a massive asteroid being tracked by NASA will or will not hit the Earth, but meteors do come through the atmosphere every day, former International Space Station Commander Leroy Chiao told Newsmax on Wednesday.
"You have to keep in mind that we're talking about seven years in the future, Chiao said on Newsmax's "Wake Up America" while discussing reports that the odds have climbed that a "city-killer" asteroid could hit the Earth in 2032.
"Things can influence the orbits of everything out there, so as we get closer, I would expect astronomers to refine that estimate," said Chiao. "And even so, just consider that every day, you know, both man-made and, you know, meteors impact the Earth or come through the atmosphere. The bulk of that is small enough that it burns up in the atmosphere. But every now and then, a big chunk makes it to the surface."
According to NASA, the odds that the football field-sized asteroid, dubbed YR4 2024 after its discovery in December, is heading for a collision with Earth in seven years is now 1-in-38, or 2.6%.
"Now, keep in mind also that most of the Earth is covered by ocean," Chiao said. "There are vast areas of undeveloped areas. Think about Greenland. You know, Siberia, places like that, big parts of Canada and the Midwest."
Still, there are large meteors that do come through, he added.
"A few years ago in Chelyabinsk, I believe, in Russia, you had a big meteor that came down and blew up near the city and shattered windows and things like that, so it can happen," said Chiao.
Then there was the incident 66 million years ago, when "the big meteor that came down and, you know, hit the Yucatan Peninsula, or near there, and the Gulf of America now … basically took out the dinosaurs, so it can happen," he said.
"I guess the question is 66 million years, does that mean we're due for one? Or, you know, is it just so rare that we really shouldn't think too much about it … there are a lot more pressing things that we need to worry about here on the Earth."
YR4 2024 is expected to drop out of the Earth's line of sight starting in April 2028, and Chiao said that is not a surprise.
"We'll be able to track it once [it] reappears," he said. "The orbits can coincide, and things reappear, but no, I wouldn't see us needing to spend a lot of money to develop spacecraft to go out and specifically track this or any other particular asteroid."
In the movies, spaceships have been dispatched to destroy such asteroids, but Chiao said scientists are not near to being able to do that at this time.
"We've done some experiments with NASA spacecraft," he said. "I believe the European Space Agency also had a spacecraft that went and visited an asteroid and actually impacted it, you know, shot an impactor at it to see what would happen and … how much they could alter the trajectory of the asteroid."
Then there is the old adage that "You can always make it worse," said Chiao.
"If we blew up a big asteroid, well, now you've got these other pieces and maybe the whole thing would have missed you," he said. "But one of these big chunks is now going to hit you."
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Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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