Pollsters historically leaning left have been adjusting rightward in recent weeks, says Rasmussen head pollster Mark Mitchell, citing a shift to save face in light of potential gains by former President Donald Trump.
In a Monday interview on Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight," Mitchell argued that left-leaning pollsters have begun shifting rightward to avoid potential credibility losses as polling increasingly reflects a competitive landscape for former President Donald Trump in key states.
"I think a lot of pollsters were trying to save their credibility or suddenly, magically figured out how to correct for the response bias they were getting," he said.
"Everybody is so focused on the battlegrounds," Mitchell said. "But I think Trump's internal polling shows kind of what my polling has shown: all the battlegrounds are leaning in Trump's direction."
According to Mitchell, Trump's performance may even exceed Rasmussen's current polling, which suggests close races in traditionally Democrat states like Virginia, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
"The race in Virginia is tighter than anybody's shown this cycle, within the margin of error," he noted, explaining that Trump's overall momentum could influence outcomes across various battlegrounds.
Mitchell also described a broader shift in voter dynamics, with polls in blue states such as New York and New Jersey revealing surprising gains for Trump. Despite these areas' historic Democrat-leaning, Mitchell's polling indicated that "Trump made up at least half of the margin he lost by in 2020," an assessment drawn from weighted polling exercises in both states.
According to Mitchell, the shift is driven by evolving demographic support for Trump, particularly among Hispanic and male voters, groups in which Trump now appears to have an edge.
"We've had Trump up with Hispanics, too," Mitchell said, calling out Ipsos and Morning Consult as among the few pollsters "hanging out to the left" despite broader movements in polling.
Mitchell attributed these polling shifts to certain firms' efforts to preserve credibility, especially as internal analysis shows a widening gap between traditional polling methods and actual voter sentiments.
"Everybody else went massively left, and ABC Ipsos and Reuters Ipsos were among the first moving 6 or 7 points to the left," he noted. "But they all started drifting back two or three weeks ago, realizing that the media push wasn't enough to get Kamala Harris over the hump."
The Rasmussen head pollster highlighted discrepancies among demographics, pointing to Rasmussen's findings, which show Trump gaining notably in key groups.
"I'm showing Trump is winning among men by way bigger than he did back in 2020," Mitchell said, adding that Trump's support among Black voters now ranges between 25% and 30%, a figure that outpaces previous election cycles.
While emphasizing Trump's strengthened position, he remained cautious about the broader impact of these trends on final results but suggested that a tighter race is likely.
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Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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