Ukraine risks a dangerous shift on the battlefield if it abandons territory in the Donbas, America First Policy Institute Center for National Security Chair Robert Wilkie warned Monday.
He said a withdrawal would remove both man-made and natural barriers that have kept Russian forces from a direct path toward the nation's capital.
Wilkie emphasized on Newsmax's "Wake Up America" that the Donbas region remains the hinge point of Ukraine's defensive line. If ceded, he said, it would create a wide and largely unobstructed route for Moscow's military to advance north.
According to Wilkie, Ukrainian forces have spent years fortifying positions and building layers of resistance across the eastern front. Those defensive networks, combined with natural terrain features, have prevented Russian troops from gaining sustained momentum toward Kyiv.
"If they give up that land, you could drive a massive armored column through that plain, and there's not going to be much to stop it," Wilkie said, underscoring the strategic stakes of the region.
He noted that rivers, forests, and lakes throughout the area function as natural choke points, slowing or complicating Russian advances. Without them, Ukraine would be forced to rely on fewer defensive options closer to the nation's core population centers.
Wilkie's comments come as international diplomatic efforts continue, including today's high-profile meeting between special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While the meeting has prompted speculation about potential negotiations over frozen Russian assets or a path toward ending the war, Wilkie warned that Putin remains committed to "maximalist demands."
The former undersecretary of defense argued that Ukraine's ability to hold territory remains central not only to its military survival but also to its position in any future negotiation.
Losing ground, he said, would not only embolden Moscow but also reshape the strategic map of Eastern Europe.
He added that Russia's military calculus is closely tied to the status of its war economy, which he described as increasingly strained by sanctions and falling oil revenues. Still, Wilkie stressed that economic pressure alone is unlikely to force Putin to retreat.
"The Ukrainians cannot hand him a victory at the very moment his vulnerabilities are showing," Wilkie said. He warned that yielding the Donbas would hand Russia precisely the opening it needs.
As the war enters another year with no clear end in sight, the fate of the Donbas may continue to define not just the tactical realities of the conflict but Ukraine's long-term security and political future.
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