Patrick Allocco to Newsmax: Trump Approval 'Most Stable' in 30 Years

President Donald Trump's approval rating remains unusually stable compared with other modern presidents, according to polling expert Patrick Allocco on Newsmax.

He disputed recent headlines suggesting Trump has hit the lowest point of his second term.

"I woke up to the sky is falling this morning, and I can assure you that it's not," Allocco said on Newsmax's "Finnerty" Monday night, pointing to Gallup's historical trend line for Trump, which shows the annual approval measurement for Trump is matching his first-term average.

"During Trump's first term, the average overall approval from Gallup was 41. Isn't it interesting? We're exactly at 41 average with Gallup right now," he said.

He also compared other recent polling releases, citing Reuters/Ipsos figures.

"Reuters Ipsos has Trump at 38%," Allocco said.

Even with those numbers, he said Trump's standing has moved within a tighter range than recent presidents.

"What we're seeing is that Trump is the most stable, has the most stable approval, and the narrowest approval band of any president over a 30-year period," he said.

Allocco contrasted that with large swings he said were seen in prior administrations.

"If you look at [Joe] Biden in just his one term, he lived within a 20-point swing. If you look at Obama, it was a 36-point swing. If you look at Bush 43, it was a 65-point swing."

Pressed about why some pollsters are showing weaker numbers than his own analysis, Allocco said the difference often comes down to screens and who the poll is sampling.

"It really comes down to their methodology," he said. "When you look at most of these polls, all of them actually, except for Rasmussen, right now, that does a daily tracking. They're looking at all adults."

He added that many surveys include people who do not vote or are low-engagement respondents, which he said can push results lower than surveys of registered or likely voters.

"They're looking at adults that don't vote, adults that may be low engagement, low information voters, as opposed to implementing screens of registered voters and likely voters," he said.

"Once you start to look at registered voters and likely voters, it boosts him up roughly 5 points, puts him in the mid-40s, somewhere between that 45 and 47% range that we discussed."

Allocco said Trump's support tends to return to a consistent band.

"He always settles back. What we've been saying for months is he always settles back to 45, 47," he said, while also citing a range of aggregators and pollsters to illustrate the broader landscape.

"If you look at RealClearPolitics right now, they have it at 43.1. If you look at Cook, it's 42. If you look at Rasmussen, he's at 46%."

He said party polarization helps explain why the president's overall approval remains within a narrow range, with high partisan alignment leaving a comparatively small pool of persuadable voters.

"Sure, it comes down to the polarization in both parties," Allocco said. "If you've got 87% approval for Donald Trump and Republicans, and you've got 90% of Democrats that are aligning with their candidate, then you're looking at an extremely small sliver of the pie... that you're looking at the independents."

Looking toward the midterms, Allocco said the most meaningful movement may come from a specific subset of voters he described as a low-engagement demographic.

"We've identified the 21- to 44-year-old, low information, low engagement, female voter we call the Phoenix," he said. "That is the one that's going to be fluctuating to the midterms."

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