Markets could be on the brink of something big. After weeks of trade-driven volatility and geopolitical tension, the conditions are now in place for a sharp, broad-based rally—if negotiations between the US and China produce even a modest opening.
Investors should prepare for the possibility of a sudden revaluation across equities and risk assets.
The backdrop is clear: after a period of decisive trade action from the US administration, signs are emerging that dialogue is resuming. This presents a serious inflection point.
The global economy has been strained by a breakdown in trade flows. Supply chains have been upended. Businesses have been forced to rethink everything from sourcing to pricing.
While this strategic reset has, many argue, strengthened the US’s negotiating position, it has also added a layer of complexity and hesitation for markets. This is what makes this moment so significant.
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Even a narrow agreement—focused on specific tariffs, product categories, or technical procedures—would send a clear signal that the worst of the trade disruption may be behind us. Thiswould be enough to trigger a wave of capital back into risk assets. Stocks, in particular, are positioned for a surge in this scenario.
Investors shouldn’t underestimate how fast this could happen. Markets are efficient, but they are also emotional.
They don’t wait for the full deal. They move on intent, tone, and trajectory. Right now, the trajectory appears to be shifting toward resolution—or at the very least, toward constructive engagement.
That’s could be game-changer.
A potential breakthrough in trade talks would support a strong rebound in global equities, especially in sectors most exposed to international commerce. Tech, industrials, consumer goods, logistics—these are areas that have borne the brunt of recent uncertainty. They also stand to gain the most if confidence returns.
Beyond equities, currencies and commodities would respond swiftly. Emerging market assets, battered by trade crossfire and a strong dollar, could stage a comeback. Safe-haven flows might reverse. Bond yields could climb as investors rotate back into growth-sensitive positions.
It would be a major psychological shift as much as an economic one.
The truth is, the markets have priced in a high degree of disruption. What they haven’t yet priced in is progress. That’s the opportunity.
The US’s firm stance on trade imbalances has brought long-overdue issues to the surface.
American businesses and workers have demanded fairer conditions, and Washington has acted with clarity and resolve. But even strong, principled strategies benefit from periods of recalibration. That’s what this upcoming phase of dialogue represents—a pragmatic step that enhances, not diminishes, negotiating leverage.
Both sides have a reason to engage. China’s economy is slowing, and a more predictable trade framework would help support its transition.
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The US, while benefiting from resilience and strong internal demand, has a vested interest in preventing unnecessary drag from global uncertainty. A measured step forward would reinforce confidence on both sides of the Pacific.
Markets thrive on momentum and certainty. When the two align, the reaction can be dramatic. That’s why this is such a pivotal moment for investors. There’s a window here—not only for policymakers to set a new tone, but for investors to position themselves accordingly before the crowd catches up.
Waiting for a signed agreement may feel cautious, but it also risks missing the fastest part of the recovery. In these kinds of scenarios, the move happens not when the ink dries—but when the narrative flips.
This isn’t about euphoria or overreaction. It’s about understanding how markets behave when fear begins to recede and policy direction becomes clearer.
The combination of reduced headline risk, a more open trade dialogue, and the potential rollback of the most disruptive measures could create a tailwind that drives prices higher across the board.
If the talks deliver—even just a little—markets won’t wait. The rally will begin before the press conference ends.
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London-born Nigel Green is founder and CEO of deVere Group. Following in his father’s footstep, he entered the financial services industry as a young adult. After working in the sector for 15 years in London, he subsequently spent several years operating within the international space, before launching deVere in 2002 with a single office in Hong Kong. Today, deVere is one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations, doing business in 100 countries and with more than $12bn under advisement. It specializes global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. In early 2017, it was announced that deVere would launch its own private bank. In addition, deVere also confirmed it has received its own investment banking license.
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