The following article is an interview by the author, of Luke Coffey of the Heritage Foundation's Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies. It is also Part II of a two-part series. Part I may be found here.
Can There Be a United West Against Russia?
In front of Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions stands a surprisingly coherent and — sort of — united West. At the start of the conflict, as per usual, the first instinct of western countries was disunity, each looking after their own interests.
Undoubtedly, the West has emboldened Vladimir Putin through its failed green policies, economic insanity, and weakness. Yet, it appears they have stepped up and shown a rarely seen solidity, that they did not have even during the pandemic’s darkest hours, for example.
The discussion with Heritage Foundation’s director of the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, Luke Coffey, continued. Coffey is an expert in the relations between the United States and the United Kingdom and on the role of NATO and the European Union in transatlantic and Eurasian security, focusing on the geopolitical side of the conflict.
Coffey explains: "Many did not believe that Russia would go big in Ukraine. This has rattled European policy elites, and therefore we are seeing rapid and major changes in terms of security and defense spending.
"There is no doubt that the West will be throwing Russia a small lifeline for as long as it continues buying Russian gas."
However, the measures recently taken to reduce dependency on Russian oil and gas are a good step in the right direction, the director confirmed, adding that the current set of economic sanctions against Russia are the largest in history in size and scope, and sanctions of this magnitude are not felt immediately.
Coffey added, "In a few months they will really start to bite. There is some scope for deeper sanctions and the U.S., and its partners should not waste anytime implementing them."
Despite the massive actions of the western countries, this column’s concern remains the United States — as geopolitically the EU has been nonexistent in recent decades.
The old continent has long been towards a path of economic zombification and socialism — suffering from self-inflicted wounds. The United States is sadly on a similar path.
Yet, a world in which America is not a key player is much more dangerous for all, inclusive of its own citizens.
"We no longer need a green light from American or any other western capital to decide on our national interest," said an Emirati political science professor for the Financial Times, on the United Arab Emirates (UAE), India and Saudi Arabia abstaining from voting on a U.S. resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite U.S. requests to vote for the resolution.
On this waning American influence, the Heritage Foundation director commented:
"The U.S. basically guarantees the security of many Gulf states but cannot convince them to vote in line with U.S. interests at the U.N.
"This is ridiculous. Part of this is the lack of U.S. engagement in the region. For instance, Biden has not even paid one visit to the region.
"He has traded strong relations with the Arab world with the desperate desire to secure a new Iran deal."
A world without America at the helm, is one with China setting the rules.
American isolationists should take this into consideration when discarding what occurs in Europe with a frightening ease. It may look like it is staying in a neutral position for now. However, the Asian dragon is observing carefully American and European actions.
In fact, it is already on an informal alliance with Russia.
Luke Coffey brought to this column’s attention an important detail:
"A large number of Russia’s forces used of the invasion of Ukraine were shifted from Russia’s Eastern Military District, leaving the number of Russian troops near the China at a historically unprecedented low.
"This point alone demonstrates the level of trust that currently exists in Russia’s relationship with China. China sees the war in Ukraine as a means to making geopolitics more difficult for the West.
"It will also be watching America’s resolve in Ukraine vis-à-vis its own ambitions in Taiwan. I suspect that China will continue its traditional role of providing economic lifelines to Russia in the face of western economic sanctions.
"However, given the magnitude of these sanctions it remains to be seen how much Beijing can help in this regard at least in the short term."
To end on a positive note, ultimately few see Russia as the winner. For Luke Coffey, "they are already paying a high cost in terms of blood and treasure.
The economic sanctions have not fully been felt and much more Russian blood will be spilt in Ukraine before the country comes under Russian control — if it ever does at all.
"This point, on top of years of chronic underinvestment, endemic corruption, and a failure to learn lessons from previous conflicts have left the Russian military facing many serious problems in Ukraine.
"We are in the early stages of a geo-political earthquake that happens maybe once a generation. It is not possible to know what the world will look like at the end of this.
The only thing that is certain is that things will never be the same as they were before the invasion," he concluded.
This column happens to agree. Cultural Marxism and socialist economic policies have weakened democracies, led to restrictions on individual and economic liberties and put the national securities of western countries as risk.
The West now has a chance to change this ruinous course and get back to the patriotic and capitalist values that helped defeat the Soviet Union.
Nikola Kedhi is a Senior Financial Adviser at Deloitte, one of the Big 4 consultancy firms, and a contributor to several media outlets in the U.S. and Europe, including The European Conservative, The American Conservative, the American Mind, The Federalist, CapX, the Mises Institute, il Giornale, and others. Following several years in the consulting and media industries, he has gained considerable expertise in economic, financial and political matters. Kedhi is also an alumnus of Bocconi University. His articles reflect solely his own views. Read Reports by Nikola Kedhi — More Here.
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