Who Is China Really Planning To Attack?
China has been increasing what it spends on its military forces, greatly increasing their capability. American observers assume that China intends to attack Taiwan.
As I pointed out in a recent column, however, Chinese leaders would be crazy to do this, since they will be able to incorporate Taiwan without the costs and risks of war.
Like a small moon orbiting a large planet, Taiwan will be unable to resist being pulled closer and closer to the rapidly increasing Chinese economy.
China is unlikely to become democratic.
But if Chinese leaders were to focus on providing its citizens prosperity and personal security under the rule of law, Taiwan could easily fall into its clutches.
There are already leaders in Taiwan who favor improving relations with China.
If China attacks Taiwan, the United States might step in and there is no assurance that China would win.
And if they did win, Taiwan would not be worth much to them, since its economy would have been destroyed and the Taiwanese would be very resentful and poor.
One wonders, then, why the Chinese regime is devoting so many resources to expanding its military capability. Is it strictly defensive?
If it is not just defensive, exactly who is it really planning to attack?
One possible answer is obvious: Russia.
Russian Siberia, to the north of China, is nearly unpopulated and has rich natural resources.
As global warming continues, this presently quasi-polar area will become more attractive for agriculture and other economic activity.
Russia's population is tiny compared with China's, and deaths in Russia now greatly outnumber births. As the Russian population decreases, so will its ability to defend itself against a Chinese invasion.
And it's unlikely that the United States would lend a hand to the Russians. We would be more likely to cheer the Chinese on, or at least give their attack a good dose of benign neglect.
Encouraging bad Russian-Chinese relations would have precedent.
President Richard Nixon and his foreign policy guru Henry Kissinger moved to normalize relations with China to put the Soviet Union — precursor to today's Russia — in its place. And it did, while paving the way for Mikhail Gorbachev’s reformers to unwittingly finish off the U.S.S.R.
Russia, lacking natural national borders, has historically been paranoid about external dangers. Vladimir Putin may therefore be well aware of the potential danger posed by China. Adding Ukraine into Russia would increase the military manpower necessary to deter or defend against a Chinese invasion.
And Putin has taken many steps to try to stay on the good side of the Chinese leadership.
Some of these steps might be short run necessities, given the need for buyers of Russian oil and gas and the Western boycott of these commodities because of the Ukraine war.
China has been very helpful here, but Putin cannot count on continuing good relations.
Putin should remember Josef Stalin's attempts to maintain relations with Adolf Hitler, and his mistaken belief that Hitler would not attack the Soviet Union.
It all came crashing down when Germany turned on its erstwhile ally and marched in.
If you were a Chinese leader and planning to attack Russia, would you broadcast that?
Or would you pretend to be aiming at another country in order to get the benefit of surprise when you finally attack Russia? (Not that surprise did Hitler any good, but there's always hope.)
I hope that China doesn't end up attacking anyone, and that its leaders will agree to cut way back on their military expenditures if other leading powers will do likewise.
Current technology would allow everybody on this planet to live comfortable lives if the huge amounts being spent on the ability to destroy each other were diverted into positive investments.
The people of the world need to understand that we are all in one boat and start acting accordingly. We live in one world, whether we like it or not.
Paul F. deLespinasse is Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Computer Science at Adrian College. Read Professor Paul F. deLespinasse's Reports — More Here.