Harry Enten, CNN's senior political data reporter, revealed that former President Donald Trump is gaining significant ground with independent voters compared to his 2020 performance, a trend that could reshape the dynamics of this year's election, Breitbart reported Wednesday.
Enten's analysis, shared on CNN's "News Central," emphasized the importance of this voting group in determining the outcome of closely contested elections.
Host John Berman opened the discussion by highlighting the crucial role of independent voters, saying, "In an election this close, any group of voters could be decisive, but this group of voters in every election is worth watching. I'm talking about independents."
Enten said that in 2020, Joe Biden secured the independent vote by 11 points. However, the landscape looks quite different this year.
"You look at September of 2024, a month ago, Kamala Harris was up 5 points among independents," Enten said. "You look now, though, she's only up by 2 points among a key block, the center of the electorate."
This 9-point drop from Biden's 2020 margin is significant, suggesting a shift in the allegiance of independent voters.
Enten elaborated on how this change plays out in the broader national context but stressed that the focus should be on key battleground states.
"Of course, this is a national picture," he said. "What is going on in those key battleground states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that blue wall? Joe Biden, last time around, won them by 5 points over Donald Trump. Look at where we are today. This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate, up by a point."
Enten emphasized the importance of the overall trend.
"It's the movement we are looking at," he said, underscoring that even small shifts among independent voters could prove pivotal in determining the election outcome.
This sentiment was reinforced by a Washington Post-Schar School Deciders poll released Monday that showed Harris and Trump polling within the margin of error in seven crucial swing states.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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