In the final weeks of the 2025 calendar year, President Donald Trump and his allies are touting what they call a historic economic achievement: a 79% increase in the rate of U.S. GDP growth since the fourth quarter of 2024, the final full quarter of the Biden administration.
The most recent government estimates point to strong quarterly expansion, with Biden ending his term with an anemic GDP growth rate of just 2.4% — barely above recessionary levels.
With less than a year in office, Trump's economic policies are causing the economy to boom with an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In social media posts, Trump has framed the economy as entering a "Golden Age," with aides crediting a suite of policy moves — tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and energy strategy — for driving what they characterize as a dramatic expansion.
"[The] 4.3% GDP growth is happening because of Trump's policies, but Biden's policies did things like reduce real incomes by $3,000," National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said this week.
An internal White House memo circulated last week argued that the Trump agenda has unleashed growth by:
1. Enacting a sweeping tax and budget bill, dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which proponents say has boosted business investment and disposable income.
2. Raising tariffs on imported goods, an effort the administration says has helped narrow the trade deficit and stimulate domestic manufacturing.
3. Rolling back regulations across energy, banking, and environmental sectors to reduce compliance burdens and spur corporate activity.
4. Lowering energy prices, particularly oil and gas, as part of a broader "energy independence" push, which the administration says has lowered business costs and spurred consumption.
5. Reducing interest rates, a goal the administration has publicly advocated for, arguing that lower borrowing costs will further stimulate investment and consumer spending.
In a Truth Social post after the latest GDP report, the president celebrated the data and reiterated his belief that his policies are fueling economic momentum, saying "the numbers will only get better."
Trump's tariff policies have been central to his economic message.
According to government tariff trackers, the administration's tariff rates on imports rose sharply in 2025, with revenue from customs and excise taxes climbing.
Supporters argue that higher tariffs are helping U.S. producers by creating a more protected domestic market and reducing trade deficits, including a notable narrowing of the current-account deficit.
Critics and independent analysts caution that tariffs can raise consumer prices, lead to retaliation from trading partners, and ultimately slow long-term economic growth.
But so far, those predictions have not materialized.
Oil prices have also been falling, with consumers seeing the effects at the pump.
In 2024, Brent crude averaged about $81 per barrel, but this year crude has averaged $69 a barrel, with prices expected to fall further next year as a result of the Trump administration's "drill, baby, drill" policies.
And nothing impacts the consumer economy like interest rates and the cost of debt.
When Trump took office in January of this year, the Federal Reserve had short-term rates as high as 4.5%. Today, the rate range goes as low as 3.5% — a 100-basis-point drop in less than a year.
Financial markets have been buoyed by economic surprises, with major indexes like the S&P 500 reaching record highs in late 2025 on optimism about growth prospects.
The so-called "wealth effect" is helping to drive the consumer economy as Americans see their portfolios and 401(k)s grow by double digits.
The S&P 500 has risen sharply in 2025, as have the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with all three indexes up between 14% and 18% this year alone.
As the 2026 election year approaches, economic performance will remain a central talking point.
Trump allies are expected to continue arguing that policy actions are transforming the economy, while critics will press for a more nuanced interpretation of the data.
The proof will be found in the symbolic cash in voters' "pocketbooks," which will shape how they vote in next year's midterms.
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