NBC Poll: If Trump Convicted, He's Still Tied

President Joe Biden's administration might be "a presidency in peril," according to NBC News' Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt, but his Justice Department's pursuit of former President Donald Trump can potentially move the needle against the incumbent's chief political rival.

Trump has expended his lead over Biden to 5 points (47%-42%) in the latest NBC News national poll released Sunday, but the poll was able to swing the results 7 points by asking if registered voters would vote against Trump if he was convicted of a felony.

Still, while Biden would lead in that hypothetical by 2 points (45%-43%), that result would be within the poll's margin of error, amounting to a statistical tie.

"A little bit of a game-changer," heralded NBC's "Meet the Press" host Kristen Welker, who was the 2020 presidential debate host who infamously did not allow Trump to press Biden on allegations found on the Hunter Biden laptop or alleged foreign influence peddling with Ukraine, Russia, and China.

After that debate, Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19, and Biden refused to debate in person, forcing the cancellation of the final two presidential debates.

Now, with 73% of registered voters saying the U.S. is on the wrong track under Biden — and the poll showing an "erosion of Biden's standing against Trump" — the only silver lining for the sitting president and NBC's Democrat pollster is there remains time for Biden to rebound against his rival, perhaps only with a conviction to salvage his reelection hopes.

"Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024," Horwitt told NBC News. "At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change."

Biden backers might have to hope for a conviction of Trump on one of the four indictments he faces, two directly from Biden's Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith:

1. 2020 election challenge and Jan. 6 in Washington, D.C., under Judge Tanya Chutkan
2. Smith's classified documents case in South Florida
3. Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis' 2020 election racketeering case
4. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's 2016 election case against Trump for alleged hush-money

Trump has also been in court fighting two defamation trials against E. Jean Carroll with verdicts in favor of Carroll amounting to $83.3 million and New York State Attorney General Letitia James' $370 million civil lawsuit.

The Hart Associates and Public Opinion Strategies conducted the NBC News poll Jan. 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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