State of the Race: How Battleground Polls See Trump-Harris

As Election Day approaches Nov. 5, the presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris couldn’t be closer.

Most political analysts believe seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — will decide who occupies the White House the next four years.

Here is a breakdown of recent polling results for each state:

• Arizona: Former President Trump appears to be polling well in a state he lost by just 10,457 votes to Joe Biden in 2020 but won in 2016. An InsiderAdvantage poll released Tuesday showed Trump with a 49.5%-47% lead over Harris. A survey from HighGround Public Affairs, also released Tuesday, showed Trump leading 46.8%-46.2%, adding the former president has overcome a gap of 2.2 percentage points since late September.
• Georgia: Trump has a 47%-43% lead in an Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll released Tuesday, outside of the poll’s margin of error of 3 percentage points. A poll released Monday by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph showed Trump with a 48%-47% lead.
• Michigan: A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Harris ahead 49%-46%, two weeks after a similar poll by the group showed Trump leading 50%-47%. A poll by the Trafalgar Group released Monday showed Trump ahead 46%-44.2%.
• Nevada: The InsiderAdvantage poll released Tuesday showed the candidates virtually tied, with Trump ahead 47.9%-47.7%. In an AARP poll released Tuesday, Trump is ahead 47%-46%.
• North Carolina: Trump has a 48.7%-46.3% lead over Harris in the final On Point/Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies North Carolina poll released Tuesday. In the wake of Hurricane Helene’s damage to the state, the poll found Trump had a 49%-44% edge over Harris in who would be better in handling a crisis. In an InsiderAdvantage poll released Tuesday, Trump was ahead 48.7%-46.8%.
• Pennsylvania: In a state believed by many as a must-win to take the White House, Trump has a 50.3%-48.2% edge in a Quantus Insights poll released Monday. A Trafalgar Group poll released Sunday shows Trump ahead 46.3%-43.3%.
• Wisconsin: Trump and Harris are tied at 48%-48% in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. In a Trafalgar Group poll released Monday, the candidates are virtually tied, with Trump ahead 46.8%-46.6%.

• Pollster Towery Predicts Trump Wins in Ga., Mich., N.C.
• Quinnipiac Poll: Harris Leads Trump by 3 in Michigan