Former President Donald Trump holds a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House just 15 days before Election Day, TIPP polling found.
Trump, the Republican nominee, leads Democrat Harris 48%-47%, according to TIPP survey results released Monday.
In a multi-candidate field, Trump holds a 0.7-point lead over Harris. The former president receives 48.7%, Harris 48.0%, People's Party candidate Cornel West 0.5%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 0.6%, and other candidates 0.5%. About 2% remain undecided, the results found.
Trump holds a 48% plurality among independents and has made inroads with Black voters.
"With just 15 days left, the race is razor-thin. Trump's narrow one-point lead and 19% support among Black voters could be game-changers, especially in battleground states," TIPP's survey release said.
"Undecided voters remain critical, and with just 45,000 votes across three states deciding 2020, every move in these final days could tip the balance. Stay tuned for exclusive insights as the race hits the final stretch."
TIPP polling discovered that Trump has 19% among Blacks. That's up from 8% in 2016 and 12% in 2020.
"This nearly doubled support across two election cycles reveals Trump's messaging on key issues like the economy, crime, and immigration is hitting home," TIPP said. "Black voters in urban neighborhoods feel increasingly alienated as resources meant for their communities are being redirected to support migrants.
"Many Black men see Trump as a fellow target of a justice system they feel disproportionately impacts them. Meanwhile, some Black women disagree with Kamala Harris on abortion, and others question whether she truly understands their experience — pointing to her prosecutorial record of targeting minor offenses.
"These dynamics are widening the cracks in the Democrats' historically firm hold on Black voters, positioning Trump to make meaningful inroads in critical battleground states."
Harris leads 54% to 43% among the 18-44 age group, TIPP results show. Trump leads among 45-64-year-olds (51%-44%) and voters 65 and older (51%-46%).
TIPP also said that based on 1,000,000 simulation trials, which combine polling data and betting odds, Trump narrowly wins the Electoral College vote over Harris 275-263.
The pollster added that the probability of a Trump win is 60.9%, while Harris has a 37.8% chance.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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