President Donald Trump has surged to the top of the betting markets for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, with bookmakers slashing his odds in half following progress toward a Gaza ceasefire.
Just days ago, Trump's odds stood at 6/1, according to Oddspedia.
They have now tightened to 2/1, making him the clear favorite. His closest competition comes from Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 5/2, followed by Russian political figure Yulia Navalnaya at 4/1.
She is the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Navalny, the leading critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, died in an Arctic penal colony on Feb. 16, 2024. While Russian officials said he died of natural causes, his family and much of the international community have accused the Kremlin of responsibility.
More than 250 other names remain in contention, including global leaders, humanitarian organizations, and activists.
Among the more outlandish ones ranked near the top is the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).
UNRWA has faced allegations its employees have ties to terrorist groups, including Hamas terrorists involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, prompting international scrutiny and calls for increased oversight of the agency's operations.
"After inquiring in Feb about @UNRWA members' involvement in the horrific October 7th attack, it's assuring to see steps taken toward accountability," Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X. "Yet, more must be done. @UNRWA should be dissolved & replaced by an org that doesn't enable evil attacks against Israel."
The Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced Friday at 5 a.m. ET during a formal ceremony in Sweden.
📊 Top 10 betting favorites:
- Donald Trump — 33.33%
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms — 28.57%
- Yulia Navalnaya — 20.00%
- UNRWA — 14.29%
- Doctors Without Borders — 6.67%
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 5.88%
- William Lai — 3.85%
- Greta Thunberg — 3.85%
- International Criminal Court (ICC) — 3.85%
- Pope Leo XIV — 3.85%
Other prominent figures in the running include Elon Musk (33/1) and Julian Assange (50/1).
Several high-profile figures and organizations often critical of Trump are also among the top 10, including UNRWA, Thunberg, the ICC, and Pope Leo, who has reportedly told U.S. bishops to speak out against Trump's Immigration and Customs Enforcement deporting illegal criminals.
"They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize," Trump lamented in February as he sought to settle long-running wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
"It's too bad — I deserve it."
Trump had vowed on the campaign trail to be the globe's peacemaker, and even some of his leading international critics admit he has been, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office on Tuesday.
"For the first time in decades, hundreds of years, thousands of years, this prospect of peace that you've made possible, Canada stands four square behind and we will do everything we can to support those efforts," Carney said. The prime minister has had public sparring with Trump over trade, tariffs, and Trump's calls to make his nation America's 51st state.
Trump's words do not readily land with everyone on the world stage, including America's adversaries — Iran, Russia, and terrorists, as well as critics, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, but the efforts to bridge centuries of divides in the Middle East and Russia are noteworthy for an award that is supposed to recognize precisely that.
"It has been hard to take some of his proclamations seriously — but this is different," a European diplomat told FT. "Gaza would be a big deal."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at odds with globalists' condemnation of his war on Hamas, says Trump had "made possible what many said was impossible": peace in the Middle East.
"If I were named [former President Barack] Obama, I would have had the Nobel Prize in 10 seconds," Trump has said, the FT noted, referencing Trump's long-running lament that Obama received the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize for "doing nothing."
Newsmax's Eric Mack contributed to this report.
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