Emerson College Poll: Newsom Surging in 2028 Democrat Field

Support for California Gov. Gavin Newsom has climbed sharply among potential Democrat primary voters, according to a new Emerson College Polling survey.

The poll, released Friday, found that 25% of Democrat primary voters would back Newsom as the party's 2028 presidential nominee, more than doubling his support from 12% in June, The Hill reported Friday.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg registered 16% support, unchanged from the earlier poll. Former Vice President Kamala Harris saw her backing slip from 13% in June to 11% in the latest survey.

Other potential candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., each drew less than 10%.

The survey showed 3% of voters preferred another candidate, while 16% remained undecided. It was conducted Aug. 25–26 among 1,000 registered voters. The sample included 387 Democrat primary voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. The overall poll carried a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Despite Newsom's lead, no potential contender secured support from a majority of voters, underscoring a wide-open race several years before the primary season begins.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Newsom's gains were broad-based: "Gov. Newsom's support surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 (6% to 18%), an 18-point increase among voters over 70 (13% to 31%), and a 14-point increase among both Black (9% to 23%) and white (10% to 24%) voters."

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