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A wise man, Thomas S. Monson, once said "The gate of history swings on small hinges, and so do people's lives." Right now, are one of those hinge points in history, swinging globally but most acutely in the Mideast.
Israel very recently conducted a limited strike on Iran’s missile production facilities but also took out critical air defense systems leaving Iranian skies open to new attacks.
The decision to strike Iran comes after its recent missile salvo weeks ago into Israel.
Adding further military objectives to the list of operations Israel is pursuing, are operations in the north directed at Hezbollah in Beirut and greater Lebanon, as well as continued operations in Gaza, and bombings in Syria.
One can sense the plate is obviously getting full.
The implications of a continued back and forth with Tehran are complex, serious, and momentous.
A full-scale attack could have global consequences for not just Israel but America, as Israel often operates in conjunction with United States' help or blessings.
Iran’s Foreign Minister stated publicly and shared on X, "Anybody with knowledge or understanding of 'how and when Israel was going to attack Iran' and/or providing the means and backing for such folly, should logically be held accountable for any possible causality," implicating the U.S.
While Israel is backed by the United States and other major Western powers, Iran has developed closer and closer ties to Russia and increasingly China.
Do the math. We could be looking at a mission creep into . . . World War III.
In March 2001, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year comprehensive agreement, deepening ties along military and economic lines.
These geoeconomic linkages already include Iran sending drones and missiles to Moscow for its use in the Ukrainian offensive.
Iran’s other senior partner is China who continues to buy nearly 90% of its oil off the black market. Iran’s new president stated after returning from the UN last month that ties between the nations would continue to deepen with new joint commissions.
The stated goal being to enhance political, economic, and security cooperation moving forward or for the lay reader becoming a new proxy for China to disrupt Western hegemony.
In short, while Vice President Kamala Harris spoke recently about stars and constellations in (yet) another confused word salad attacking former President Trump, the constellations of world war seem set.
Iran and North Korea are the junior partners to Russia and China, whereas America and Europe mostly stand with the star of David in Israel — pro-Hamas Democrats notwithstanding. It seems these emerging pairs and conflict of visions will shape the world’s future.
No outcome of a larger military conflict with this power dynamic will produce a winner, everyone will lose.
One might ask what comes next or what to expect.
If history is a guide expect Israel to do whatever it believes will strengthen its relative security position vis-a-via Tehran.
Israel has a precedent of carrying out direct attacks on nuclear facilities in Iraq with Operation Opera in 1981 and bombing Syria’s al-Kibar reactor in 2007 after years of intelligence work.
This initial strike strategically took out air defenses, the next step would be oil infrastructure, with the final casus belli being leadership decapitation, or destroying their nuclear infrastructure.
The current stakes could not be higher and objective observers may worry Biden is not lucid or strategic enough to deal with this potential cascade before a new president is sworn in. Biden’s recent comments calling for a ceasefire after the death of Sinwar show he does not understand this conflict.
If this conflict were linear a ceasefire might be possible however it's not linear but exponential or becoming a game of the many versus the many.
The deepening of ties among Iran, Russia, China and by derivative North Korea increases the power dynamic and consequences by orders of magnitude.
The people of Iran could change the equation by overthrowing the mullahs but do not count on this outcome. America may be dragged into a precarious condition if Israel follows through on her fight for security.
Let's hope Israel decapitates Iran’s oil economy and lets the government collapse on itself. There may be no good option on the table — but Western powers losing the looming conflict would be a disaster for all humanity.
David Hursey is a policy analyst who served on Utah’s COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force and as Special Assistant to the president of the Salt Lake Chamber. He has worked on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. and several presidential and congressional campaigns. He holds a Master’s degree in Middle East Studies and Political Science from The University of Utah and lives in Salt Lake City.
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