With President Donald Trump not on the ballot for the midterms, Republicans reportedly are concerned about their supporters turning out to vote.
GOP strategists and operatives are increasingly alarmed by a pattern in special elections and down-ballot contests across the country in which Democrats have outperformed their 2024 baseline, even in districts Trump carried comfortably, Axios reported.
In 20 state legislative districts that have held special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points, according to Axios.
In addition, Democrat candidates outperformed Harris by an even larger margin — an average of 13.9 points — in 67 state House and Senate races last year, based on data from The Downballot, which tracks state-level and congressional campaigns.
Republicans' internal polling, Axios reported, is aligning with public surveys suggesting a downturn in support for GOP candidates in certain areas.
Many Republicans trace the turnout concerns to a simple factor: Trump is not on the ballot in 2026, and he will not be on the ballot again in 2028.
Some strategists also told Axios that certain controversies have discouraged portions of the president's base, while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.
One example cited was the administration's reluctance to release additional Epstein files — an issue that has drawn significant attention among Trump's most engaged supporters.
Axios also claimed polling has shown dissatisfaction with Trump's immigration crackdown and concerns about the economy.
Several special election results have added to the concern.
On Jan. 31, Democrats flipped a North Texas-based seat in the state Senate. Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by 14 points in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
Then on Feb. 7, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a South Louisiana state House district by a 24-point landslide margin. Trump had won that district by 13 points in 2024.
Even in races Republicans still won, the margins have sometimes narrowed sharply.
On Feb. 10, a Republican won a special election for a conservative north-central Oklahoma state House district by 28 points, though Trump had carried the same district by 58 points in 2024.
A GOP operative summed up the pattern to Axios: "There is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base."
Not all Republicans believe the results signal a major shift. Some caution that low-turnout special elections often hinge on local issues and do not always translate to national midterm outcomes.
Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee, told Axios: "Let's not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake."
Still, Republicans acknowledge the stakes.
While appearing on Newsmax in January, veteran pollster Patrick Allocco warned GOP voters against complacency, stressing that Democrats' anger and motivation often drive turnout in midterm elections.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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