NJ Poll: Ciattarelli Virtually Tied With Dem Rep. Sherrill

Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli has surged in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, pulling nearly even with Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., as Election Day approaches, according to a new Quantus Insights poll.

The survey shows Sherrill leading by just 48.1% to 45.8% among likely voters — within the margin of error — after once holding a 10-point advantage over Ciattarelli in early September.

Topline Breakdown:

1. Sherrill: 48.1%
2. Ciattarelli: 45.8%
3. Undecided: 4.5%
4. Other: 1.6%

Gender:

• Men: Ciattarelli 52%, Sherrill 43% → Ciattarelli +9
• Women: Sherrill 52%, Ciattarelli 40% → Sherrill +12

The momentum shift is fueled by strong support from independent voters, who now back Ciattarelli 51%-38%, and by widespread voter appetite for change, with 76% saying they want a new direction.

"This is critical: Ciattarelli now leads independents by 13 points," according to the pollster's analysis. "That's where the shift is coming from. That alone can flip a race under a certain turnout environment."

"Ciattarelli is gaining. He's holding his base, picking up ground with men and non-college voters and winning over independents. But he hasn't closed the trust gap on policy."

"He's tied, not ahead."

Other recent polls, including one from Emerson College and an internal campaign survey, also indicate a dead heat. The RealClear Polling average now shows Sherrill's lead shrinking to just 4.7 points — and analysts note the aggregate underestimated Ciattarelli's support by about five points in his 2021 run.

Quantus Insights sampled registered likely New Jersey voters Sept. 29-30, and the results have a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

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