Trump Needs Allies to Keep U.S. Out of Wars

OPINION

On the 2024 campaign trail, Donald Trump hit upon a surprise applause line with his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base.

He rightly mentioned that, of all the post-Cold War American presidents, he alone had not initiated a major war.

Following the debacles in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, this was historic good news for a Republican base returning to its realist roots after its disastrous flirtation with an overly expansive neo-conservatism.

However, the proof (as they say) is in the pudding.

The once and future chief executive is about to inherit two ongoing hot wars in Ukraine and the Mideast, and to deal with the greatest threat of all — the rise of a peer superpower competitor in China.

In Europe, the travel trajectory seems clear: The promotion of a ceasefire plan in Ukraine, pressuring both sides to accept a deal loosely based on the Korean model.

Preventing a conflict with China over Taiwan is an even higher priority.

The U.S. does not want Xi Jinping’s government to geo-strategically break through the first island chain surrounding it. Nor can the U.S. let Beijing take over the democratic island’s massive, advanced chip manufacturing capacity.

For there is little doubt superpower China is a formidable opponent.

Its navy is already larger than America’s (if less capable ship by ship).

Taiwan is next door to Beijing, an immense strategic advantage.

Further, Xi’s military has missile capabilities that America’s navy can't shoot down with 100 percent certainty. At present, the victor in such a pivotal conflict is worryingly unclear.

The goal must be to make Xi hesitate in his stated desire to take Taiwan, using closer ties with Asian allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, India), tariffs, and trade sanctions to bring China to heel and forever postpone a reckoning over the island.

And then there is Iran.

As Trump believes low oil prices are vital to keep the U.S. economy humming, he's not interested in a further escalation in the Mideast.

For if the current conflicts expand, Teheran will be able to mine the pivotal Strait of Hormuz and block the shipments of up to 30 percent of the world’s oil and much of its LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).

While Trump said that he will not allow Iranian nuclear weapons to be deployed, he'll assuredly attempt a negotiated approach first. For that, working closely with intermediaries who know the region and the players well is essential.

In terms of his strategic goals for the region, Trump has been admirably clear.

• He's declared he's going to sort out the Mideast quagmire.
• He's going to end the wars in Israel and Lebanon.
• He's going to get the American and Israeli hostages back.
• And . . . he's going to make sure that regional power Iran no longer threatens American interests.

He'll do it, as he always does, using a combination of pressure and persuasion.

One of the most significant differences between the old and new administrations is that no one feared Biden. His administration had no teeth — literally. Trump 2.0 will be different, and the rest of the world knows it.

For Trump, alliances are transactional.

Simply put, he will let our friends know what he needs them to do, and if they do it, great.

If not, he'll also make it clear to our enemies that they have a simple choice: either get in line or face the power of the full panoply U.S. state tools, including the military, as a last resort.

Qatar makes for a great regional example. Trump has a good history with them.

In 2017, he quickly realized that the Saudi-Bahraini-Emirati blockade of Qatar was an act of diplomatic self-harm and brokered a settlement.

Then, in turn, Qatar subsequently helped then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo negotiate a deal with the Taliban to put an end to the Afghanistan quagmire.

Too bad the Biden team completely botched the evacuation.

If the U.S. and Israeli hostages are still alive, we're sure to need Qatar's help in getting them back. Qataris and the Egyptians are the only ones with access to Hamas.

This isn't because Qatar likes Hamas.

In fact, they loathe them almost as much as we do.

However, the Qataris accept the basic realist notion that they have to talk to those in their very rough neighborhood that they don’t like, if they are to further their national interests.

As such, every U.S. administration since George W. Bush — and presently Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — has asked the Qataris to act as go-betweens.

Further, if we don't want Gaza or southern Lebanon to become wastelands with hundreds of thousands of radicalized Arabs, we're going to need Qatar's financial muscle to rebuild and rehabilitate these war zones along far more moderate lines.

The Qataris helped in the past. Hopefully, they will step up now, if the Trump administration is to achieve its goals in the Mideast.

Donald Trump’s second term will be full of foreign policy challenges.

The president needs friends, allies, and intermediaries to help the U.S. achieve its laudable strategic goals and keep his overarching promise to the American people of avoiding war.

Dr. John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of the global political risk advisory that bears his name. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation. His latest book is "The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism."