Recent polling suggests that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party contenders may pose a challenge to Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election, particularly now that Kamala Harris has replaced Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket, The Hill reported.
Recent polls indicate a growing threat to Trump's presidential campaign from independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates.
Previously, polls suggested that the presence of a third-party candidate like Kennedy in a race between Trump and Biden primarily hurt the Democrat side. However, with Harris now leading the Democrat ticket, new data suggests that Trump may be more vulnerable to third-party competition.
Democrat strategist Jon Reinish said, "With the head-to-head of Biden-Trump, that head-to-head seemed to be pretty baked in, but the third party was a problem for the Democrats. That no longer — if the data is to be believed, and it looks credible — seems to be the case."
Kennedy, a well-known figure due to his political lineage, has outperformed typical third-party candidates, who usually struggle to gain more than a few percentage points. Although his polling numbers have not reached beyond low double digits, his candidacy has caused concern across the political spectrum, raising fears that he could spoil the race for either major party candidate.
The national average from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, taken just before Biden stepped aside, showed Trump leading Biden by 3.3 points in a head-to-head race. However, with Kennedy in the mix, Trump's lead increased to 4 points. The dynamic has shifted with Harris in the race. She ties with Trump in a head-to-head scenario and leads by 3 points in a three-way contest that includes Kennedy.
This trend is reflected in key battleground states. For instance, in Wisconsin, a recent Marquette University Law School poll found Trump and Harris nearly tied in a direct matchup, but Harris gained a 2-point lead when third-party candidates, including Kennedy, were factored in. Similarly, a New Hampshire poll showed Harris expanding her lead when third-party candidates entered the fray.
Kennedy's appeal is complicated by his broad political positions, including skepticism about vaccines and opposition to online censorship, which resonate with some conservatives. However, his environmental background and political legacy also attract disenchanted liberals, creating a unique voter base.
Despite the polling shifts, some strategists caution against overestimating Kennedy's impact. Republican strategist Zachary Moyle noted that Kennedy's support previously came from Democrats dissatisfied with Biden, but with Harris now leading the ticket, many of those voters have returned to the Democrat fold.
Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe suggested that Harris, while more appealing than Biden, might still lose votes to candidates like Cornel West, who appeal to the Democrats' left wing. Nonetheless, Roe downplayed Kennedy's potential impact, likening it to past third-party candidacies that ultimately had limited influence.
"I think people like Ralph Nader and Jill Stein posed more of a risk than he does today," he said.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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