Polls Suggest Tight Race for Senate Majority, Perhaps Still 50-50

While the House is expected by many to flip back to Republicans to a varying degree, the 50-50 Senate remains in the balance, if not still split right down the middle, according to Politico analysis of the 10 key battleground races.

It sets up some interesting and likely big-dollar final weeks before Nov. 8 midterms' final votes are tallied.

"This is the strangest midterm I've ever been a part of, because you have these two things in direct conflict: You have what history tells us, and you have all this data that says it's going to be a very close election," Priorities USA Chair Guy Cecil, a Democrat group, told The New York Times.

Chair of the House Republican Conference, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is still predicting a "red tsunami" in the House.

"I think we can win over 35 seats, which would give us the largest majority since the Great Depression," she told the Times.

But the Senate remains teetering on split decision.

"Even the slightest tremor is going to put the Democrats in the minority," Democrat pollster Peter Hart told the Times.

Here are the 10 Senate races that can decide the majority:

1. Arizona – Blake Masters v. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.

Politico projection: Lean Democrat
Polling average: Kelly +4.1
2020 RCP polling average 30 days before election: Biden +3.6
Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

Kelly has consistently led the polls, but recent ones suggest Masters is gaining ground and just outside the margin of error. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Masters and is heading to Mesa, Arizona, on Sunday night for a Save America rally to stump for Masters, Gov.-nominee Kari Lake, among others.

2. Georgia – Herschel Walker v. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga.

Politico projection: Toss up
Polling average: Warnock +3.8 ... but this number has a outlier poll that has Warnock up 12 points. This is much closer and in the margin of error.
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +0.3
Eventual margin: Biden +0.3

If you need any indication on how fearful Democrats are about losing this seat, just look at the headlines. Walker has been smeared of late.

"This is just textbook 101 for the Democrats," Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., told Hugh Hewitt's podcast. "They know they're going to lose. Herschel Walker is running a good race. He's a great candidate.

"Raphael Warnock is Joe Biden, and you know, it's just lies, cheat, and smear: That's what the Democrats do. They did it to Brett Kavanaugh. They did it to Clarence Thomas. They're doing it to Herschel Walker. But he's going to win, and so we're going to win in Georgia."

3. Nevada – Adam Laxalt v. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Ariz.

Politico projection: Toss up
Polling average: Laxalt 2.1
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +5.3
Eventual margin: Biden +2.7

Laxalt, who Trump held a Save America rally Saturday night for, has led consistently, but his leads remain mostly within the margin of error, making voter turnout key to deciding this seat.

4. Ohio – J.D. Vance v. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio

Politico projection: Lean Republican
Polling average: Vance +1.2
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +2.5
Eventual margin: Trump +8

Ohio is famously a bellwether state, despite the fact Trump dominated in 2020 and President Joe Biden won the Electoral College. This seat is not a flip, but it is a key state to hold for Republicans. Polls are showing some surprising strength for Ryan, who is attempting to appeal to voters as a moderate Democrat, despite years of being a hard-liner to the left.

5. Pennsylvania – Dr. Mehmet Oz v. Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman

Politico projection: Toss up
Polling average: Fetterman +4.3
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +6.6
Eventual margin: Biden +1.2

Oz is surging amid questions about Fetterman's health and struggles with public speaking. Also, Oz has wide appeal with his famed television persona. A debate could be must-see TV. This has been projected to be one of the biggest-dollar races in these midterms, as Democrats seek to flip this seat in what has become a Democrat-run state.

6. New Hampshire – Don Bolduc v. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H.

Politico projection: Lean Democrat
Polling average: Hassan +6.6
2020 RCP polling average: No average
Eventual margin: Biden +7.2

Unlike the five GOP candidates above, Bolduc has yet to receive the official Trump endorsement, although Trump has called Bolduc "a strong guy." Despite the margins favorable to Democrats, The Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate pollsters in the Trump era, has this race just outside the margin of error. A Trump endorsement could prove to be a game-changer.

7. Colorado – Joe O'Dea v. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo.

Politico projection: Lean Democrat
Polling average: Bennet +8.3
2020 RCP polling average: No average
Eventual margin: Biden +13.5

Colorado is not quite a state favorable for the Republicans to flip a seat, but there are rumblings among the GOP that O'Dea is sleeper candidate. The polls have yet to show true strength, though. Notably, Bennet is a failed Democrat presidential candidate like Ohio's Ryan and Bennet won his past two elections with a mere plurality of the vote, giving O'Dea some hope for a push to close ground in the final weeks. Trump has not endorsed O'Dea.

8. North Carolina – Rep. Ted Budd, R-N.C. v. Cheri Beasley

Politico projection: Lean Republican
Polling average: Budd +1.5
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +0.6
Eventual margin: Trump +1.3

All of September's major polls favor Budd, who is the first GOP candidate on this list to already have won a seat in Washington, D.C. Notably, polls have this race with double-digit percentages of voters still undecided. This is a seat the GOP will be seeking to hold, so expect Trump to make some appearances for his endorsed candidate in the final weeks.

9. Wisconsin – Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisc., v. Mandela Barnes

Politico projection: Toss Up
Polling average: Johnson +3
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +6
Eventual margin: Biden +0.7

Johnson is the first GOP incumbent on this list in a tenuous position, largely because the blue-wall state of Wisconsin has some strength for Democrats, albeit more in polling than in actual election results. Trump has outperformed polls and mocked them repeatedly for failing to capture the electorate in the state.

10. Florida – Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., v. Rep. Val Demings, D-Fla.

Politico projection: Lean Republican
Polling average: Rubio +4
2020 RCP polling average: Biden +3.5
Eventual margin: Trump +3.3

Florida has surged in Republican registrations, suggesting Rubio should be on steady ground, but Demings has been popular in the state, particularly in the Orlando area. Republican turnout and performance in South Florida will be the key to holding this seat.

Center for American Progress Action Fund President Navin Nayak told the Times that Democrats have "no business being in this election," perhaps due to Biden's struggles, a shaky economy, and rampant inflation.

"I wish the election was a month ago," Nayak told the Times.

Abortion is an issue Democrats are clinging to, as they seek to overcome the historic hurdle of a midterm wave against the party seated in the White House.

"The Democrats' message is, 'Elect Republicans and the sky may fall!'" GOP strategist Paul Shumaker told the Times, adding voters "see the sky is falling — all because of Joe Biden's bad economy. The increase in prices at the grocery store is an everyday fact of life."