President Joe Biden should end his reelection campaign, pollster Nate Silver wrote in an opinion piece Wednesday.
Silver counts himself "among those who emphatically think" Biden should step away after his ratings have dropped even lower after last week's debate and several Senate candidates are polling far above him.
"Democrats are trying to circle the wagons to protect President Biden, noting that Barack Obama lost his first debate as an incumbent president, too," Silver, the founder and former editor of FiveThirtyEight, wrote Wednesday for The New York Times.
"But this one doesn't pass the smell test. Mr. Obama wasn't 81 years old at the time of his debate debacle. And he came into the debate as a strong favorite in the election, whereas Mr. Biden was behind (with just a 35% chance of winning)."
Biden, he said, needed to "shake up the race" in the debate against former President Donald Trump but instead, "he's dug himself a deeper hole."
Silver's comments come after he said this week in his "2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast" that after the first post-debate polls were released, the results were "mostly poor" for Biden.
A look at the polls beyond the numbers for Biden and Trump suggests Biden's chances are in trouble, but Democrats can take hope in the numbers for the congressional races, Silver wrote.
In Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, five presidential swing states where there are highly competitive Senate races, there have been 47 nonpartisan surveys conducted since Biden and Trump became their parties' obvious nominees in March, and in 46 of the polls, the Senate candidate polled better than Biden, Silver wrote.
Further, none of the polls showed the Democrat Senate candidate trailing in their race, but Biden led in just seven surveys, tied with Trump in two, and came in behind the former president in the other 38 polls, he noted.
In other states, Biden is also underperforming presumed Democrat Senate nominees, including by 5 points in Michigan; 7 in Wisconsin, 8 in Pennsylvania, 11 in Arizona; and 13 in Nevada, according to Silver.
"The pollsters are finding plenty of Democratic voters, just not enough Biden voters," Silver wrote. "These Senate candidates are well known to voters in their states and running in actual races, not hypothetical matchups, like those featuring other prospective Democratic presidential candidates that pollsters occasionally test."
Silver added, if he were to become a Democratic Party superdelegate, he would choose a candidate who has proven "his or her mettle" in one of the swing states, such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., or, potentially, Gov. Wes Moore of Maryland.
Meanwhile, he called on Democrats to pick a replacement candidate who can give their party a fighting chance, potentially through polling.
He conceded his plan is "not great," but "there is no great plan left."
"At this point, any Democrat would likely be an underdog to Mr. Trump. Not because Mr. Trump is popular, which he very much isn't, but because it's hard to imagine a replacement being fully prepared for the race," Silver concluded.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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