Black Turnout Dips in Early North Carolina Voting

Initial data from North Carolina's early voting show Black turnout is lagging behind the state's voter registration, which could spell trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris, Politico reported.

Currently, Black people make up 18% of early voting in North Carolina, yet Democrats in the state are warning that percentage needs to increase to at least 20% if Harris is going to flip the state in 2024. Close to 36,000 more Blacks had voted early in-person at the same time in 2020 than in 2024.

Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist in the state, said, "That gap has to be closed among African Americans for Democrats to win."

Former Democrat Rep. G.K. Butterfield told the outlet that he thinks the Black vote will turn around, adding "this week is going to be impressive" for Black voter turnout.

"Black voters know the consequences of another Trump presidency," he said. "And so, I believe, at the end of the day, we will have an Obama-like turnout."

According to a New York Times/Siena college poll published Oct. 12, Harris is earning 78% support among Blacks, compared to the 90% President Joe Biden had four years ago. Over the past eight years, Black support for Republicans has more than doubled since 2016 and currently stands at 15%.

"We have to intensify our focus and our message" to Black voters "between now and Election Day," said Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan, who campaigned for Harris throughout eastern North Carolina. "The vice president understands that you can't take any vote for granted, and obviously certain segments of society are not hearing from us enough."

Others say the early vote numbers are nothing to panic over, citing the 2020 pandemic as a reason for the discrepancy in early turnout.

"We completely expected Democratic voters to cast their ballots later than they did four years ago. We're no longer in a pandemic, so voters want to participate in the excitement of Election Day," Lauren Hitt, a spokesperson for the Harris campaign, said in a statement. 

• Harris Campaign Appears to Be Surrendering North Carolina
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