The race to replace former Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., is tight, but Republican candidate Matt Van Epps leads by 2 points in the latest Emerson College poll released Wednesday and has drawn the attention and endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Van Epps is on the cusp of 50% majority support among likely voters (or those who have already voted) in the poll, leading Nashville Democrat Aftyn Behn by 2 points, 48%-46%, with 5% undecided. His support expands to 49% when the undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning.
"The special election in Tennessee's 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball wrote in a statement.
Notably, the poll might undercount Van Epps' overall support because of those who have already voted early, according to Kimball.
"Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%," his statement added.
Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, got a boost Tuesday night from Trump on Truth Social, urging supporters in the district to boost turnout for Van Epps.
"I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District, who haven't voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person," Trump wrote. "You can win this Election for Matt!
"PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.
"Polls close at 12 P.M. NOON in most of TN-07, and every vote counts. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 12 P.M., STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! TN-07: Early Voting ends November 26th, and Election Day is December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!
"Find your Early Voting location at: swampthevoteusa.com/tennessee/"
Trump carried the 7th District by 22 points last November, according to Kimball.
The contest is to fill the seat vacated when Green resigned earlier this year to pursue a private-sector opportunity with his new cloud-computing company Prosimo, which aims to reduce Chinese Communist Party influence on the internet and in America.
Tennessee's sprawling 7th Congressional District runs from the Kentucky border to the Alabama line and includes portions of North and West Nashville.
Though long considered safely Republican, the race has drawn heavy Democrat spending and high-profile surrogates seeking to flip a House seat, with Republicans holding a very narrow majority in this Congress. There are currently 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats in the House.
There are three current vacancies in that number, including Green's seat, but the other two might be targeted by Republicans to flip previously Democrat-held seats:
– Green resigned 07/21/2025.
– Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, died 03/05/2025.
– Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., resigned 11/20/2025.
Conservative media, including Newsmax pundits on the network, have extensively covered Behn's statements that she hates the party scene in Nashville, which includes the district she serves as a Democrat in the Tennessee House.
Conservatives question the political implications of criticizing the voters of her district, but she has Democrats saying that local voters are equally nonplussed by the tourists in the famed party and music city.
The Emerson poll surveyed 600 likely voters and early voters between Nov. 22-24, before the Trump Truth Social post's call to action. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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