Vice President JD Vance is the clear early favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote for him, according to a new Yale youth poll.
Vance leads Donald Trump Jr. by 43 points, while outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis places third at 6%, according to the undergraduate-led survey.
However, 79% of those surveyed said DeSantis would be more likely to win the 2028 general election against a Democrat — regardless of personal preference — while 71% said the same of Vance.
Vance falls to a distant second behind President Donald Trump in a hypothetical scenario where Trump would seek a third term, the poll found. Trump draws 50% support, with Vance at 19% and "other" candidates at 5%.
Notably, only 20% of respondents ages 18-22 and 28% of those 23-29 said they would support Trump in a 2028 GOP primary. By contrast, a majority of respondents over 45 said they would back Trump for a third term.
Among Republicans ages 18-22, Vance is the only candidate who leads Trump — by 8 points. And among Republicans ages 23-29, Trump's advantage over Vance shrinks to just 2 points, well within the survey's margin of error, the survey said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said recently that Vance is the GOP front-runner in 2028.
On the Democrat side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 primary field with 25% support, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., at 16%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%. All other candidates draw less than 5%.
"Unlike in the Republican primary, the Democratic candidates have larger variations in support between different demographic groups, suggesting that candidates have started to develop bases of support," according to the poll analysis.
"For instance, Ocasio-Cortez leads among Democrats under 35 with 32%. Newsom leads among male (32%), White (27%), and Hispanic (27%) Democrats. Female (24%) and Black (47%) Democrats prefer Harris."
A separate electability measure found Democrats overwhelmingly viewing Newsom as their strongest general-election prospect, with 85% judging him most likely to prevail over a generic Republican, according to the poll.
Verasight conducted the survey of 3,426 registered voters, including 1,706 aged 18-34, between Oct. 29 and Nov. 11. The margin of error is +/- 1.7 points for the full sample.
Mark Swanson ✉
Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.
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