Republicans appear to hold the advantage in the current nationwide battle over redistricting, with more opportunities to alter the lines in their favor ahead of next year's midterm elections, strategists and nonpartisan analysts told The Washington Post on Wednesday.
Democrats have vowed to retaliate since the GOP moved to add five red seats in Texas, but they face many obstacles because they control fewer states than Republicans and they have already maximized their power in others. In addition, in some cases they would have to overcome independent commissions set up to prevent gerrymandering.
"The Republicans are pretty likely to come out ahead — it's just a question of how much they come out ahead," said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst for the nonpartisan site Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Democrats say they are determined to disrupt Trump's push for more red seats, even if they cannot stop it entirely. As Republicans defend a 219-212 House majority with four vacancies, even small changes in the map could make the difference next year.
"It's sort of irrelevant how lopsided you think the battle is going to be — you've got to get your play in," said Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon, a Democrat, who is working on legislation that would redraw his blue state's congressional map if others go ahead with mid-decade redistricting. "I don't see that we've got any choice."
States normally deal with new congressional districts once a decade, after each census, but Texas moved to change the lines ahead of schedule, the Post reported. Now other states are looking to do the same.
More House seats nationwide are considered Republican or GOP-leaning (211) than Democrat or Democrat-leaning (206) heading into 2026, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, with analysts saying that the latest round of redistricting would most likely boost Republicans further.
"There is no scenario where we don't have more seats to go get than they do," a Republican strategist said of the GOP's redistricting position nationwide compared with that of Democrats. "No doubt about it."
Democrats are hoping that reluctant state-level Republicans will, in the end, decide not to go through with redistricting in some places where it is under consideration — and that courts will block other changes.
"We need to see courts in these states that will uphold the law and uphold the state constitutions, and the question is whether we get that — [or] if we get ideological decisions from state courts that disregard the state constitution or bend the knee to Donald Trump," said Marina Jenkins, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
Brian Freeman ✉
Brian Freeman, a Newsmax writer based in Israel, has more than three decades writing and editing about culture and politics for newspapers, online and television.
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