Redistricting Fight Could Broaden, Drag On With Texas, Calif. as Epicenters

The two most populous U.S. states — California and Texas — are grappling for political advantage ahead of the 2026 elections, setting up a national proxy war as Democrats and Republicans vie for control of Congress in the latter half of Donald Trump's second presidency.

In Texas, Democrats on Tuesday again delayed their state’s House of Representatives from moving forward with a redrawn congressional map sought by Trump to shore up Republicans’ 2026 midterm prospects. It was the second consecutive day that absent Democrats forced a quick adjournment by denying the GOP majority the required attendance to take votes.

In California, Democrats encouraged by Gov. Gavin Newsom are considering new political maps that could slash Republican-held House seats in the left-leaning state while bolstering Democrat incumbents in battleground districts. The move is intended to counter any GOP gains in Texas — though California Democrats could face even more complex legal and logistical hurdles than their temporarily stymied Republican counterparts in Texas.

The two states' existing maps putting Democrats within just three seats of reclaiming a U.S. House majority in the midterms.

The fight, which could spill over to other statehouses, demonstrates Trump's aggressive view of presidential power and his hold on the Republican Party. It also tests the historical balance of powers between the federal and state governments, with Texas and California having long played leading roles in that dynamic.

For years, the two behemoth states have set competing political and cultural curves, dueling over jobs, innovation, prestige and ideology against the backdrop of Republican domination in Texas and Democrats' control on the more liberal West Coast. The two states have produced presidents and vice presidents and influential House leaders. Now, the rivalry is at the center of the two major parties' scramble to frame their redistricting approaches as fair and impartial, while skewering the other as ruthlessly partisan.

“We are entitled to five more seats" in Texas, Trump insisted Tuesday in a CNBC interview. He pointed to California’s existing maps, which are drawn by an independent commission unlike the Texas maps drawn by a partisan legislature: “They did it to us.”

National Democratic Chairman Ken Martin answered that Trump and compliant Republicans are subverting democracy out of fear given the president's lagging approval ratings and voter angst over the massive GOP tax and policy bill he signed last month.

“Republicans are running scared that voting for this monstrosity will make them lose their majority, and it certainly will,” Martin said in Illinois, where multiple Texas Democrats have settled temporarily to deny their Republican colleagues a quorum in Austin. “They don’t give a damn about the will of voters for their needs. ... It's insulting. It's shameful. It's wrong.”

After dozens of Democrats left Texas, the Republican-dominated House remains unable to establish the quorum of lawmakers required to do business. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has made threats about removing members who are absent; Democrats' retort that Abbott is blustering about legal authority he does not have.

The House issued civil arrest warrants for absent Democrats and Abbott ordered state troopers to find and arrest them, but lawmakers physically outside Texas are beyond state authorities' jurisdiction.

House Speaker Rep. Dustin Burrows said Tuesday that Texas officers are continuing efforts to corral lawmakers. He offered no details of that process.

Abbott, for his part, has derided absent Democrats as “un-Texan.” Democrats cast the governor and his ally, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, as Trump lackeys.

“When Donald Trump calls, they say, ‘Yes, sir. Right away,’” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said Tuesday.

Republicans currently hold 25 of Texas' 38 U.S. House seats. The GOP replacement map is drawn to boost Republicans to 30 seats and reduce Democrats to eight. Republicans' current advantage of nearly 2-to-1 already is a wider partisan gap than the 2024 presidential results: Trump won 56.1% of Texas ballots, while Democrat Kamala Harris received 42.5%.

The Texas House will convene again Friday.

In California, Democrats are looking into a plan to secure 48 of 52 congressional seats. That’s up from the 43 seats — about 83% of the House delegation. Like Texas, the existing party gap outpaces the statewide presidential split in 2024: Harris got 58.5% of the vote to Trump's 38.3%.

Newsom has said he wants to advance partisan redistricting but won’t move ahead if Texas pauses its efforts. California's plan, though, would need approval from lawmakers and voters, who may be skeptical to give it after handing redistricting power to an independent commission years ago.

The governor said he’d call a special election for the first week of November — but that's a tight timeline ahead of a statewide referendum later that month. Further, voter turnout in odd-year elections is hard to predict, and Newsom would be campaigning at a time when his popularity among voters has been sagging.

And opposition has formed quickly.

Republican former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signaled he'd campaign to protect the independent redistricting commission that was one of his signature accomplishments. Schwarzenegger spokesman Danile Ketchell said in a statement that the former governor has always advocated “taking power from the politicians and returning it to the people where it belongs, and he believes gerrymandering is evil no matter who does it.”

Still, many Democrats hope Newsom's push will compel Texas Republicans to stand down. “We’ve tried not to think about hypotheticals because there are a lot of factors at play,” Texas state Rep. James Talarico said. “We know this is a tactic that does give us success.”

Despite California's cumbersome path, a potentially extended stalemate in Texas — even if the GOP ultimately gets its way there — could give Newsom and his allies more time to rally support.

Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, said there is uncertainty but that “Democrats have a path to victory if they can make this a referendum on Donald Trump and his collaboration with Texas to stack the deck in his favor.”

Further, Pritzker and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who also welcomed some Texas lawmakers who left Austin, have promised to explore ways to redraw congressional districts to counter GOP efforts. That means Texas and California could simply be blueprints for a multistate redistricting bonanza.