Republican voters have taken an early lead in casting ballots in critical swing states, providing the party a potential boost just days before Election Day with early voting data from Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina revealing higher turnout among registered Republicans than Democrats, Bloomberg reported.
This trend could signal a shift in voter behavior, though experts caution that early voting alone cannot predict election outcomes. Instead, it provides a snapshot of voter enthusiasm and is an essential metric for campaigns focused on get-out-the-vote efforts before Nov. 5.
Trump, who has consistently cast doubt on the integrity of mail-in voting since 2020, has in recent months encouraged Republicans to vote early.
"The main thing is, you got to get out, you got to vote. And I will be voting early," he told Fox News.
According to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab, nearly 30 million people nationwide had cast ballots as of Thursday. Key battleground states Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada are seeing record-breaking early voting numbers.
The increase in Republican early votes may simply indicate a shift from Election Day voting to earlier participation, according to Charles Stewart III, an elections expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
"The main effect of early voting is to provide convenience to people who would have voted otherwise," Stewart said. This shift allows campaigns to redirect resources to less consistent voters as the election nears.
In Arizona, early Republican turnout has increased despite lingering concerns about the 2020 election's legitimacy. Judy Smith Kennedy, head of the GOP in Cochise County, emphasized the measures taken to ensure ballot security, noting that surveillance cameras monitor ballot drop boxes.
The drop in early Democratic turnout compared to 2020 has raised concerns for Democrats like Sam Almy, who monitors voting trends for the campaign firm Uplift. Almy said he hopes "2020 could be an anomaly, and we're just reverting to our previous voting patterns."
Nevada's early voting also saw Republicans outpace Democrats, with Republicans making up 40% of early ballots.
Early voting data in North Carolina reveal a slight edge for registered Republicans among the 2 million ballots cast, though the state's significant number of unaffiliated voters complicates the analysis.
Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College, said baby boomers — who tend to lean Republican — make up a considerable portion of early voters.
"Democrats need to start thinking about what they need to do to get it more balanced," he said.
The one exception to Republican early voting dominance is Pennsylvania, where Democrats have cast 60% of the state's 1.2 million early ballots. However, experts like Michael McDonald of the University of Florida caution that this may not give Harris an advantage as the state has limited in-person early voting, and Republicans may turn out in greater numbers on Election Day.
Other swing states like Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin see surges in early voting but do not track voter party affiliation, making it challenging to gauge partisan turnout. Michigan has recorded over 1.3 million early ballots, and Georgia is surpassing previous early voting records. Wisconsin had 592,902 absentee ballots cast as of Thursday.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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