Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could impact the key battleground state of Pennsylvania and, therefore, the entire presidential race, a pollster told the New York Post on Wednesday.
Already deemed a longshot and effectively playing the role of spoiler, Kennedy has been facing an uphill climb to achieve ballot access in many states across the nation.
A legal challenge filed last Thursday seeks to have Kennedy kept off Pennsylvania's fall ballot, an effort with ramifications for the hotly contested swing-state battle between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.
The petition argues the nominating papers filed by Kennedy and his running mate "demonstrate, at best, a fundamental disregard" of state law and the process by which signatures are gathered.
It claims Kennedy's paperwork includes "numerous ineligible signatures and defects" and that documents are torn, taped over, and contain "handwriting patterns and corrections suggestive that the indicated voters did not sign those sheets."
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told the Post it's typical to see third-party candidates struggle to obtain ballot access in Pennsylvania.
"We see them a lot in Pennsylvania. They're classically adjudicated ... sometimes resulting in significant rejection of signatures and removal [from] the ballot."
Although Kennedy is polling at 4% in Pennsylvania according to the most recent survey, Borick said Kennedy still could "impact" the election if he can maintain his place on the ballot — "even if he gets 3 or 4 points. Of course, it becomes a game of who are those votes getting siphoned from."
The Quinnipiac poll had Harris leading Trump 48% to 45%.
"For a long time," according to Borick, the expectation was that Kennedy "would hurt the Democrats more."
"But there seems to be substantial evidence that if he moves the needle away from one or the other, that Trump might be more damaged," he said.
"Can RFK Jr. be impactful? Yeah, Jill Stein was impactful."
With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.
Kennedy's campaign suffered a blow this week when a judge in New York invalidated his petition to put his name on the state ballot, a ruling that could potentially create problems for the candidate as he faces challenges elsewhere.
His attorneys filed an appeal Wednesday to a ruling this week from Justice Christina Ryba, who said the residence listed on his nominating petitions was a "sham" address he used to maintain his voter registration and to further his political aspirations. The judge ruled in favor of the challengers, who argued Kennedy's actual residence was the home in Los Angeles he shares with his wife, the "Curb Your Enthusiasm" actor Cheryl Hines.
The candidate has accused the Democrats of being the party of "lawfare."
Kennedy's campaign says it has collected enough signatures for ballot access in all 50 states and that it is officially on the ballot in 17 states.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
James Morley III ✉
James Morley III is a writer with more than two decades of experience in entertainment, travel, technology, and science and nature.
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