Americans overall can expect the largest tax refunds ever in 2026, thanks to President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill.
That's the prediction being promoted by the Trump administration, congressional Republicans, and tax experts as the bill's cuts begin showing up in household finances, first through refunds, then through bigger take-home pay once federal withholding is adjusted.
The Hill reported that administration officials are projecting "the largest tax refund ever" in 2026 because many workers kept having taxes withheld at higher levels even after the bill was signed into law.
House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., pointed to a December memo citing a Piper Sandler analysis suggesting 2026 is shaping up to be "the largest tax refund season," The Hill said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed that forecast, telling Philadelphia's NBC 10 that refunds could total $100 billion to $150 billion and amount to $1,000 to $2,000 per household — largely because withholding tables did not immediately change after the law passed, meaning many taxpayers effectively overpaid during the year.
Republicans say that dynamic is a feature, not a bug — immediate relief that families will notice.
In a new statement, Smith said 2026 is "shaping up to be the largest tax refund season," thanks to "tax cuts for working families" signed by Trump, emphasizing policies aimed at blue-collar workers and seniors.
Smith argued the law's provisions — including no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security, along with a larger standard deduction and an expanded child tax credit — will help families cover everyday costs that surged during the Biden years.
"Waitresses, welders, seniors, moms, and dads will have more money in their pockets to put food on the table," Smith said, calling the bill a direct response to inflation and higher living costs.
The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy group, offered timing as a key explanation for why refund checks could jump in the first place.
In its analysis, the group said refunds are likely to be larger than typical because the OBBB's tax cuts for 2025 reduced individual taxes, but withholding tables were not adjusted right away.
That means many taxpayers will receive more of the tax cut "all at once" when they file 2025 returns in 2026, rather than gradually through bigger paychecks.
Tax Foundation estimated the law cut individual income taxes by $144 billion for 2025 and cited outside estimates that up to $100 billion of that could show up as higher refunds next filing season, potentially boosting average refunds by as much as $1,000, depending on a taxpayer's situation.
The group listed seven major tax cuts taking effect for 2025, including:
- A bigger child tax credit.
- Higher standard deduction.
- A larger SALT cap for many filers.
- A new $6,000 senior deduction.
- New deductions tied to auto-loan interest, tips, and overtime pay.
Conservatives note Democrats and some outside groups are already attacking the bill as favoring top earners, but Republicans counter that refund season will provide a simple test: Families will see the money hit their accounts.
As withholding catches up later, Treasury officials say workers should then see more of the benefit in their regular paychecks, reinforcing Trump's argument that tax relief, not more Washington spending, is the fastest way to help households.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
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