Senate Democrats in key battleground state polls have consistently outperformed President Joe Biden — drawing speculation that November voting could notch the highest level of ticket-splitting in years.
Voting for different parties on the same ticket has become increasingly rare as political polarization grows, according to The Hill.
But the current polling strength of Democrat Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania suggests some voters will back them while supporting former President Donald Trump or another candidate other than Biden, the outlet noted.
"This is more split-ticket voting than we would traditionally see, but there's also a higher undecided factor than we would normally see — I think that plays into it," Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling, told the outlet.
"The dynamics of this race are just so different from previous elections, even from 2020."
In 1972, GOP President Richard Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern in a landslide, winning 49 states. But 190 House districts elected a Democrat representative that year, according to the Pew Research Center.
In 1988, nearly 150 districts voted one way for president and another for House. In 2012, that number was only 26.
Polls have mostly shown Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, yet Democrats have had a consistent polling advantage with their Senate candidates, The Hill reported.
Democrat candidates in states that will determine which party controls the Senate — Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — are ahead of their GOP opponents, the outlet reported.
The disparity between presidential and Senate races has been consistent for months.
"I think we'll see higher levels of split-ticket voting in this election," Taglia told The Hill. "We are seeing that reflected in the polling, but I just don't necessarily think it's going to be quite as stark as we're seeing right now."
Analysts believe name recognition could play some role in explaining the trend, but it's not the only factor, according to The Hill.
Democrat candidates have not had trouble fundraising, while Republicans have backed wealthy candidates who can provide much of their own funds to their campaign, Wisconsin Democrat strategist Joe Zepecki told The Hill.
"Everyone knows who President Biden is, and these numbers are showing that voters don't like what they see," Republican strategist Alex Zdan told The Hill. "Trump is loved by his Republican base, Biden is tolerated."
The inclusion of independent candidates in the presidential race, notably Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are another X factor that could lead to a greater split, Zdan told the outlet.
Taglia said Senate candidates might not want to tie themselves too much to Biden, but their advantage could help the incumbent anyway.
"That's going to be an investment that the Biden campaign doesn't necessarily have to make where they're getting a bonus on top of their investment just from these statewide candidates turning out the vote, getting people energized, having them tune in to some Democratic issues," Taglia said.
"It's just a reversal from what you normally expect to see," he said.
Fran Beyer ✉
Fran Beyer is a writer with Newsmax and covers national politics.
© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.