As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, questions loom over the future of U.S.-China diplomatic dialogue, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Key communication channels established during President Joe Biden's tenure could be disrupted, raising concerns among policy experts about global stability and trade implications.
Over the past year and a half, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other senior officials from her department have regularly talked with their Chinese counterparts, addressing issues like trade imbalances, industrial overcapacity, and financial stability. These exchanges reintroduced under Biden contrast with the near absence of such discussions during Trump's first term.
In early 2017, the Trump administration reduced the 90-plus official communication mechanisms it had previously maintained with Beijing. Viewing these channels as ineffective and burdensome, Trump's team opted for a more confrontational approach, which reduced formal dialogues to virtually none by 2020.
Biden sought to reverse this trend, reestablishing over two dozen high-level avenues for dialogue with China. These included discussions on economic policies, security, and climate change.
Jay Shambaugh, Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, said that such forums allow Washington to confront Beijing on critical issues, such as excessive manufacturing output and support for Russia while pursuing defensive trade measures like tariffs.
"Just because we're talking doesn't mean we don't continue to take defensive actions," Shambaugh said, referencing tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, including steel and electric vehicles.
Despite these efforts, a potential Trump administration appears less inclined to continue Biden's strategy.
Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, expressed skepticism about maintaining current dialogues. "It's hard to imagine the continuation of the present near-strategic and economic dialogue," he wrote recently.
Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for Trump's transition team, called China a threat to U.S. manufacturing and pledged action.
"The American people elected President Trump to stand up to China ... and make America strong again," she said.
From Beijing's perspective, structured dialogue has always been preferable, offering predictability and stability. The Trump team's preference for informal and direct channels may clash with Chinese officials' adherence to protocol. Chinese officials' attempts to engage Trump's inner circle have reportedly been resisted, further complicating bilateral relations.
Beijing's manufacturing overcapacity has become a focal point in these dialogues. U.S. officials, including Shambaugh, have urged China to scale back production and stimulate domestic demand to mitigate global spillover effects. However, progress remains slow.
"We don't think they're moving far enough," Shambaugh said.
Additionally, the U.S. has raised concerns about China's financial ties to Russia. Efforts to curtail Beijing's support for Moscow's military production include drafting sanctions that could sever Chinese banks from global financial systems.
"Our Chinese counterparts recognize the serious sanctions risks," Shambaugh said.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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