U.S. holiday sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, the National Retail Federation forecast Thursday.
Spending will rise to between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, compared with a 4.3% rise to $976.1 billion in November and December last year, it said.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.
“We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones,” Shay added.
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews added, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
Retailers are hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
NRF's holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases.
NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.
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