Ipsos Poll: Harris Leads, but Race Is Statistical Tie Nationally

Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris held a marginal 46% to 43% lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, with a glum electorate saying the country is on the wrong track, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Harris' lead in the six-day poll, which closed Monday, differed little from her 45%-42% advantage over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier, reinforcing the view that the contest is extraordinarily tight with just two weeks left before the Nov. 5 election.

Both polls showed Harris with a lead within the margin of error, with the latest poll showing her ahead just 2 percentage points when using unrounded figures.

The new poll showed that voters have a dim view of the state of the economy and immigration – and they generally favor Trump's approach on these issues.

Some 70% of registered voters in the poll said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same of immigration policy.

Voters also said the economy and immigration, together with threats to democracy, were the country's most important problems. Asked which candidate had the better approach on the issues, Trump led on the economy – 46%-38% – and on immigration by 48%-35%.

Immigration also ranked as the No. 1 issue when respondents were asked what the next president should focus on most in their first 100 days in office. Some 35% picked immigration, with 11% citing income inequality and equal 10% shares citing healthcare and taxes.

But Trump fared poorly on the question of which candidate was better to address political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%. She also led on abortion policy and on healthcare policy.

Exceptionally Close Race

Harris' lead over Trump might not be enough to win the election even if it holds through Nov 5.

National surveys, including Reuters/Ipsos polls, give important signals on the views of the electorate, but the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, triumphing in the Electoral College even though she won the national popular vote by 2 points.

Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck and neck in those battleground states.

The poll gave signs that voters – particularly Democrats – might be more enthused about this year's election than they were ahead of the November 2020 presidential election when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.

Some 79% of registered voters in the poll – including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans – said they were "completely certain" they would cast a ballot in the presidential election. The share of sure-to-vote poll respondents was up from 74% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 23-27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they were certain to cast ballots.

The new poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the frontrunner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.

Given the close match, the candidates' efforts to ensure that their supporters actually cast ballots will likely be key in determining the winner. Just two-thirds of U.S. adults voted in the November 2020 election, which was the highest turnout in over a century, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center.

Roughly one-third of registered voters are Democrats and one-third Republican, with the balance independents or those who favor third parties, according to an estimate by Pew Research.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 3,481 registered voters. Some 3,307 of the respondents were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris held a 3-percentage-point lead over Trump 48%-45%.