FBI Director Kash Patel said this week that the 2025 U.S. homicide rate will be the lowest recorded "in modern history."
Patel said the 2025 murder figures, which the FBI will release in December, will show a "double-digit" drop from previous years.
Patel said reducing the nationwide homicide rate was one of the bureau's major priorities this year.
"This FBI is going to be releasing murder rates ... which is the lowest it has been in modern history, by double digits," he said.
Independent analysts anticipate a significant decline as well.
Former intelligence analyst Jeff Asher predicted in September that when the 2025 crime data becomes public, it "will likely report the lowest murder rate it has ever recorded."
He based that on trends showing a roughly 20% drop so far this year compared with 2024.
Recent FBI statistics confirm the downward trend.
Data released in August showed that in 2024, murders and non-negligent manslaughters dropped about 14.9% from the prior year.
Patel attributed the decline in part to a reallocation of agents away from the Washington, D.C., region toward field offices nationwide.
He said the results are a sign of a "cultural change" inside the bureau, with greater commitment to attacking violent crime and improving responsiveness outside the capital.
Patel said the drop shows progress under President Donald Trump, whose administration expanded support and resources for the FBI's law enforcement efforts.
He said he doesn't worry about the establishment media's narrative regarding how the FBI is being run.
Citing a "cultural change" that has been "well received by the field," Patel said his personnel are "the only audience I care about."
"I don't care about what the media thinks and how they falsely report that we are debilitating our functions as an FBI," he said.
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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