There Is a ‘Khomeinist,’ Nuclear Rope Around Israel
For years, I have been warning, and so have others, that the Khomeinist regime controlling Iran since 1979, has its designs on building and obtaining a nuclear weapon with the ability to deter and/or partially (or even fully) destroy its self-perceived enemies, from the United States to Israel, to moderate Arab states.
After U.S.-led forces invaded Afghanistan to the East of Ifan and NATO troops deployed there began building an anti-jihad army in Central Asia along the borders — with the Khomeinist regime, the regime came to the conclusion that they needed a nuke as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) projected that one day, an Afghan Army backed by the Western allies might march into Eastern Iran.
A similar projection was made by the command of the regime after the U.S. entered Iraq and removed their Baathist but weakened foe, Saddam Hussein.
The war room in Tehran naturally saw a Western-trained Iraqi Army, backed by forces from the Gulf and determined Kurds, threatening the regime from the West.
These strategic scenarios prompted the regime to reinvigorate original plans from the 1980s and 1990s to pursue a nuclear program with nuclear technologies inherited from the Soviet bloc.
The developments since 2001, and the two invasions along its borders, convinced the ayatollahs that only an atomic weapon could deter the U.S. and the West from adventures into Iran seeking another "regime change."
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran Nuclear Deal (July 14, 2015), was the most profitable transaction the Khomeinist "Republic" had achieved since its inception in 1979.
Thanks to the Obama team, Tehran received the billions it needed to buy weapons, fund militias, and grow influence in the West.
But didn’t the JCPOA limit the development of the nuclear program?
Only as much as the regime wanted it to.
Meaning, as Tehran received the billions needed for its nuclear program, it played up the focus point of "uranium enrichment," codified by the deal.
But the regime’s nuclear strategy wasn’t limited to building a classical bomb.
In fact, a basic nuclear weapon (Hiroshima and Nagasaki size and type), if built and deployed, would be easily located and destroyed by Israel, the United States and/or NATO.
Thus, the regime needed to create a "dome" to protect it, which required the money coming from the deal — and time.
If the Islamist junta is not toppled by a revolution soon, they will achieve a classic nuclear weapon, and the appropriate ballistic missiles for delivery.
Meanwhile, Israel, has been and will be, busy trying to delay the components of those very weapons.
That’s why another tack was considered by the regime.
They’d keep the road open to the classical nuclear weapons, extracting billions more from the West in a timeframe set by the regime itself.
And with that money, now at vertiginous levels, they could acquire multiple smaller tactical nukes.
In 2006, I alerted the Anti-Terrorism Caucus in Congress about this strategy and continued to bring attention to it in my briefings to national security agencies. and during presidential campaigns ever since.
In my assessment, the regime may have acquired or tried to secure tactical nukes as of 2014, when ISIS got close to Baghdad and the Iraq-Iran border.
ISIS seemingly attracted many Sunni extremists.
Yes, just a theory, but strategic reasoning alone indicates the regime has chosen the path of tactical nuclear capabilities.
Strategically thinking, a wave of tactical devices used against Israel and U.S. assets could provide the space and time necessary to successfully deploy a second wave of weapons around Israel, and along the Gulf.
If one projects such a terrible scenario, targeting several spots in Israel, a first wave would cripple the country but would still leave something to be overrun. Even a limited scenario of using such weapons in deterrence mode could decisively change the equation.
The regime could detonate a few of them in a desert, as India and Pakistan did in 1998, declaring itself a nuclear power.
This would change all calculations and provide Tehran with astronomical power of preemption.
Lastly, in such a scenario, it’s more than likely the IRGC would deploy a few of these tactical weapons across the four countries it controls, providing its militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen the opportunity to bring to fruition a nuclear arch around not only Israel, but also Saudi Arabia.
It would be easier, even if still risky, to smuggle tactical nukes to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, than actual classical bombs.
In any event, the "tactical nukes" route seems more logical, in view of realities.
Those tactical nuclear weapons could become the "Khomeinist nuclear rope" around Israel, the realization of a long-held fantasy of the jihadi regime in Tehran.
Unfortunately, such a nightmare for the region and the world has no antidote, except total regime change in Iran.
Dr Walid Phares served as Donald Trump foreign policy adviser in 2016 and has been the Co secretary General of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group since 2009. He is the author of several books including his latest Iran and Imperialist Republic and US Policy. He is cohost of the War and Freedom Podcast. Read Dr. Walid Phares' Reports — More Here.
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