Tags: conclave | vatican | polymarket | pietro parolin | luis tagle | pope francis

Parolin, Tagle Among Top Prospects to Be Next Pope

By    |   Tuesday, 22 April 2025 05:10 PM EDT

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, and Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines are among the popular bets to succeed Pope Francis who died Monday at age 88.

In roughly 15 to 20 days, a conclave of the College of Cardinals will convene within the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican where the process will begin by secret ballot to pick the next bishop of Rome.

While any male baptized Roman Catholic is eligible, Popes have been selected from among the cardinals for the past 700 years. While the number of electors is usually capped at 120, this year there are more than 130 cardinals under the age of 80 who are eligible to vote in the conclave.

In 2013, Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina was 15th in the running at the outset of the conclave to replace Pope Benedict XVI. However, he became Pope Francis after five rounds of voting over 24 hours. The favorite in 2013 was Angelo Scola of Italy, who resigned as Archbishop of Milan in 2017.

According to The Wall Street Journal, this will mark one of the most wide-open conclaves in recent history.

The last three popes have come from outside of the Vatican, but Parolin is seen as the natural successor to Francis. Parolin, 70, has been the No. 2 to Francis since 2013. However, Parolin suffers from a lack of charisma that could hurt his chances, according to the Journal and Politico. In addition, a deal he negotiated with China giving the Communist Party a say in the appointment of bishops remains controversial.

Parolin was the leader at 37% in Polymarket probabilities to be the next Pope.

Behind him at 26% is Tagle, who is called the "Asian Francis" for his similar views on social justice. For the conservative bloc of cardinals looking for a return to normalcy after Francis opted for blessings to same-sex couples, for example, Tagle is not the one, according to reports. Also, at 67 years old, Tagle's age could work against him; cardinals like Popes over 70 to avoid a long pontificate, according to the reports.

Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, from Lombardy, who is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, is at 10% on the Polymarket. However, Pizzaballa is only 60 years old.

Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, 72, is seen as the strongest conservative contender, Breitbart reported. His positions on divorce, immigration, and gay civil unions are traditional, which would provide the reset that conservative cardinals are calling for. Erdő was among the candidates in 2013. He was at 8% on the Polymarket.

Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, 76, was also a strong favorite in 2013. Turkson was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI to lead the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. However, he was rebuked by the national bishops' conference in Ghana for coming out against legislation to criminalize homosexuality, and he made controversial comments in 2013 about child sexual abuse being less prevalent in Africa, according to reports. He was at 7% on the Polymarket.

Another strong conservative prospect is Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79, who was outspoken against Francis on social issues. He could be the first Pope from Africa since the 5th century and the first ever from sub-Saharan Africa, according to Breitbart. He was at 4% on the Polymarket.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, 69, is seen as a progressive who would continue the ways of Francis. He has advocated for building "bridges" with the LGBT community, and it was alleged that he was aware of a same-sex union at the archdiocese of Bologna in 2022, according to Breitbart. He was at 3% on the Polymarket probabilities.

Francis appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals who can vote, making it unlikely that the next Pope will be one that leans more toward the conservative principles of Pope Benedict XVI, according to the Journal.

Mark Swanson

Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.

© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


GlobalTalk
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, and Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines are among the popular bets to succeed Pope Francis who died Monday aged 88.
conclave, vatican, polymarket, pietro parolin, luis tagle, pope francis
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2025-10-22
Tuesday, 22 April 2025 05:10 PM
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