CARTAGO, Costa Rica (AP) — Costa Rican voters choose Sunday between continuing the policies of outgoing conservative populist Rodrigo Chaves by electing his selected successor or giving a new chance to parties seeking to shed a self-serving, establishment image.

The historically peaceful Central American nation’s crime surge in recent years could be a deciding factor for many voters. Some fault Chaves' presidency for failing to bring those rates down, while many see his confrontational style as the best chance for Costa Rica to tame the violence.

Laura Fern ndez, the Sovereign People’s Party’s candidate, was Chaves’ former minister of national planning and economic policy and, more recently, his minister of the presidency.

Promising to continue Chaves’ political program, she has maintained a comfortable lead in polls, but Sunday will determine whether she wins outright with 40% or more of the vote or has to face the second-highest vote-getter in a runoff on April 5.

Costa Ricans will also elect a new 57-seat National Assembly. Chaves’ party is expected to make gains, but perhaps not achieve the supermajority he and Fern ndez have called for, which would allow their party to choose Supreme Court magistrates, for example.

Twenty contenders are seeking the presidency, but Fern ndez is the only one who has consistently polled in double figures.

Far behind are a cluster of five candidates, including economist lvaro Ramos of the National Liberation Party and former first lady Claudia Dobles, the candidate for the Citizen Agenda Coalition, who could all potentially make the second round if Fern ndez does not wrap it up Sunday.

Some 3.7 million Costa Ricans are eligible to vote. They began casting their ballots at 6 a.m. Sunday and voting was scheduled to continue until 6 p.m.

Ronald Loaiza, an electrical engineer, was one of the first to vote amid rain and cold early Sunday at a school in Cartago, about 15 miles (25 kilometers) east of San Jose. He came early so that he could accompany his father to vote later in another town.

“I hope that it’s a democratic celebration, that the people come out to vote,” he said. “It’s very important that we exercise the right that this country gives us, that we’re conscious of our democracy.”

Four years ago, Chaves ran an outsider campaign that carried him to victory over the country's traditional parties, despite the fact that he had briefly served as economy minister in one of their administrations. His framing of traditional parties as corrupt and self-interested resonated in a country with high unemployment and a soaring budget deficit.

Constantino Urcuyo, a political-science professor at Costa Rica University, said the social upheaval in the country that carried Chaves to power is not unique, mentioning similar examples of conservative populists winning presidencies in Argentina, Ecuador and the United States.

He said Chaves’ party has attacked the country’s institutions and wants to change the entire constitutional framework. Chaves has relentlessly criticized the judiciary and legislature for challenging his initiatives

“The election is crucial,” Urcuyo said. “It is between people who want a radical change of the system and those who want to reform the system.”