German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Sunday faces his first electoral test since taking office last May.

Voters will go to the polls in the southwestern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, offering his party a chance to reclaim dominance.

There will be four more state elections this year.

Baden-Wuerttemberg, home to Mercedes-Benz and a historic center of Germany's car industry, was for years a stronghold of Merz's conservatives. But for the past decade, his Christian Democrats (CDU) have been the junior partner in a Green-led coalition there.

Opinion polls suggest the partnership will continue, although it is unclear whether the CDU's candidate — 37-year-old newcomer Manuel Hagel — or the more experienced Cem Ozdemir from the Greens will come out on top to replace the popular Green premier, Winfried Kretschmann.

With the latest poll for the broadcaster ZDF putting the two close, a victory for the Greens could stir internal party discontent with Merz, whose own ratings have hit record lows.

Still, moderate former Agriculture Minister Ozdemir would be unlikely to cause serious problems for the government in the Bundesrat, the upper house of Parliament that represents the states.

Aside from the choice of premier, there will be close attention to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has been polling at around 20%, maintaining the strong gains it has made across Germany in recent years.

Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, whose support in Baden-Wuerttemberg — one of Germany's most prosperous regions — has been boosted by a crisis in the country's car industry.

Also underlining the ongoing transformation in German politics is the possibility that the  Left Party will pass the threshold to enter state Parliament and the shriveling in support for the center-left Social Democrats to single figures in recent polls.

Overshadowing the election is the uncertainty caused by the U.S.-led conflict with Iran, which has already jacked up fuel prices and could stoke deeper economic problems if the war continues, although there is little sign of any direct impact on the vote.

"Voters are smart, they know that in Baden-Wuerttemberg, it's about state political issues," said Manfred Guellner, head of the polling group Forsa.

The Baden-Wuerttemberg election will be followed by a vote in the neighboring state of Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, then by ballots in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September.