Israel's population growth rate fell 0.9% in 2025, an "unprecedented decline," according to a paper published Wednesday by an Israeli think tank.

"This is a very unusual figure," Prof. Alex Weinreb, the director of research at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies, told the Times of Israel.

A population growth rate of 0.9% signals steady but moderate expansion, adding pressure to housing, schools, and infrastructure without the strain seen in faster-growing regions, according to demographic analysts.

Israel has fallen below 1.5% twice: to 1.42% in 1981 and 1.25% in 1983.

The study, titled "Israel 2025: A Demographic Crossroads," pointed to a negative net migration rate, stagnation in birth rates, and an expected increase in the absolute number of deaths in 2025.

"We are at the beginning of a new era in Israel's demographic development. The peak period of natural increase has passed, alongside a less stable — and even negative — migration balance. These two factors represent a clear break from past patterns," said Weinreb.

The study said fertility rates would decrease significantly by 2030, with secular Jewish women projected to have 1.7 children by then.

Projected increases in total fatalities also weighed on growth rate forecasts, with the number of deaths rising from roughly 46,000 in 2018 to an estimated 51,000 in 2024.

The Taub report also found that 2024 marked just the fourth time in the past century that migration turned negative, with about 26,000 more people leaving the country than moving in. The center said that shortfall is expected to widen to roughly 37,000 in 2025.

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