The Kremlin is dramatically raising the stakes in its standoff with the West, warning NATO's involvement in Ukraine has already crossed the threshold of open conflict.
The sharp rhetoric from top Russian officials comes just days after Russian drones struck inside Polish territory, triggering alarm across the alliance and intensifying calls for a NATO-backed no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev issued one of his most direct warnings yet Monday, claiming a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine would "mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia."
Medvedev, who has emerged as one of the Kremlin's most aggressive voices since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, made the remarks in both Russian and English, underscoring their intended global audience.
Medvedev's warning came in direct response to mounting discussions within Western capitals about a limited no-fly zone designed to protect Ukraine's skies from Russian drone and missile strikes. Such a move, supported by some NATO members, would authorize alliance aircraft to intercept and destroy incoming Russian drones and missiles — potentially over Ukrainian airspace, but with the risk of cross-border escalation.
"NATO aircraft shooting down Russian drones is nothing less than participation in combat operations," Medvedev declared. "This would mark the beginning of a large-scale war between NATO and the Russian Federation."
Medvedev also lashed out at European Union proposals to seize frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine's war effort and reconstruction.
He vowed retaliation against states participating in such measures, warning Russia would pursue them in "all possible international and national courts."
In a more ominous statement, he added: "In some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure," raising the specter of potential kinetic or cyberattacks against European governments.
The Kremlin quickly reinforced Medvedev's message.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared the following day that "NATO is at war with Russia," asserting that alliance countries were already "de facto involved in the conflict" through arms transfers, intelligence support, and training of Ukrainian forces.
"This is not indirect support. This is direct involvement," Peskov told Russian state media.
He added European moves to seize frozen Russian sovereign assets "will not go unnoticed," suggesting Moscow is prepared to escalate both rhetorically and materially against NATO members.
These warnings coincided with Russia's recent cross-border strike into Poland. On Sept. 14, Polish defense officials confirmed that several Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace, with at least one crashing near the city of Lublin. While the incident caused no casualties, Warsaw condemned the attack as "a deliberate violation of NATO territory."
Polish authorities said they are working with NATO allies to determine whether the incursion was accidental or part of a broader Kremlin strategy of intimidation. Early assessments from Western intelligence suggest the drones were intentionally flown toward Poland, raising fears that Moscow is testing NATO's resolve under Article 5 of the alliance charter.
The incident has strengthened calls among some NATO members to consider a limited no-fly zone over western Ukraine, close to the Polish and Slovak borders, where Russian drones frequently enter NATO airspace. Advocates argue such a zone would both protect Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and shield NATO states from spillover attacks.
The Kremlin's fierce response indicates how seriously Moscow views this debate. By equating a no-fly zone with a declaration of war, Russian officials are attempting to deter the West from taking steps that could undermine one of Moscow's most effective weapons in the conflict: its campaign of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine's power grid and population centers.
The drone incursion into Poland has sharpened NATO's dilemma: respond forcefully to defend alliance territory, or risk escalation by imposing measures like a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
While Washington and other capitals remain cautious about steps that could spark direct conflict with Moscow, pressure is mounting in Eastern Europe for stronger protections against spillover attacks. The Kremlin's increasingly aggressive rhetoric highlights both the fragility of the current balance and the high stakes facing the alliance as it weighs how far to go in confronting Russia's campaign of drone and missile strikes.
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